Russia's War in Ukraine: Insights from RAND

Residents flee from the town of Irpin, Ukraine, after heavy shelling by Russia destroyed the only escape route used by locals, March 6, 2022, photo by Carlos Barria/Reuters

Residents flee from the town of Irpin, Ukraine, after heavy shelling by Russia destroyed the only escape route used by locals, March 6, 2022

Photo by Carlos Barria/Reuters

When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in Febrary 2022, it set off the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II.

Today, as the fighting continues, casualties mount, and the humanitarian crisis worsens, it's unclear what will happen next. How might the conflict evolve? Is a negotiated settlement possible? And if so, then what are the potential implications of such an agreement? And how can the West continue to hold Putin accountable while mitigating the risks of a wider war between Russia and NATO?

A vast body of previously published RAND research and analysis can shed light on these questions and more. Plus, dozens of RAND experts are providing timely insights that may help inform policy responses to Russia's war.

From The RAND Blog

Russian Strategy and Capabilities

  • Wagner fighters wave flags of Russia and Wagner group on top of a building in an unidentified location in Ukraine in this still image obtained from a video released on May 20, 2023, photo by press service of Concord/Handout via Reuters

    Commentary

    Ukraine Is a Breeding Ground for Russian PMCs

    Moscow's desire for additional fighters in Ukraine has created a breeding ground for Russian private military company (PMC) development. This explosion of what are essentially private armies is not only shaping the battlefield in Ukraine; it could have devastating impacts long after this conflict ends.

    Jun 14, 2023

Ukrainian Capabilities, Civilian Resistance, and the Will to Fight

Refugees and the Humanitarian Crisis

  • Volunteers remove debris from the House of a Culture in the village of Ivanivka, which was heavily damaged during Russia's attack, in Chernihiv region, Ukraine, September 3, 2022, photo by Vladislav Musienko/Reuters

    Report

    Weighing Options for Ukraine's Recovery

    In making decisions about reconstruction, the Ukrainian people and their government will face trade-offs regarding timelines, prioritization of efforts, leadership, and funding. Understanding these trade-offs can improve their decisions and contribute to the transparency and integrity of the process.

    May 2, 2023

Diplomatic and Political Dimensions

  • Members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces participate in a military operation in Donetsk, Ukraine, June 9, 2023, photo by Latin America News Agency via Reuters Connect

    Commentary

    How Not to Help Ukraine

    Good strategy involves clearly defining your objectives (ends), developing practical methods to accomplish them (ways), and then allocating sufficient resources (means) to turn these objectives and methods into reality. The debate over congressional support for Ukraine aid largely revolves around means. But what of the other two legs of the strategic triad?

    Jun 17, 2023

U.S. Strategic Competition with Russia

  • U.S. President Joe Biden and Russia's President Vladimir Putin meet for the U.S.-Russia summit at Villa La Grange in Geneva, Switzerland, June 16, 2021, photo by Denis Balibouse/Reuters

    Report

    U.S. Strategic Competition with Russia Is Here to Stay

    Competition between the United States and Russia occurs at many levels, from the military arena to the economic, political, and social realms. A review of 58 RAND reports on this topic highlights major findings and explores key aspects of the deteriorating U.S.-Russia relationship.

    Jan 31, 2022