Dara Massicot

@MassDara on Twitter

Senior Policy Researcher

Washington Office

Education

M.A. in national security and strategic studies, U.S. Naval War College ; B.A. in Russian language and literature, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; B.A. in peace, war, and defense, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Dara Massicot is a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation. Before joining RAND, she served as a senior analyst for Russian military capabilities at the Department of Defense.

Her work at RAND focuses on defense and security issues in Russia and Eurasia. She specializes in Russian military strategy, combat operations, and escalation dynamics. Her long-term interests include force posture, force planning, and grand strategy.

Massicot received her M.A. in national security and strategic studies from the U.S. Naval War College's College of Naval Command and Staff in Newport, Rhode Island.

Research Focus

Recent Projects

The Russian Way of Warfare
A New Approach to Conventional Arms Control in Europe: Addressing the Security Challenges of the 21st Century
The Future of the Russian Military: Russia's Ground Combat Capabilities and Implications for U.S.-Russia Competition
Russia's Limit of Advance: Analysis of Russian Ground Force Deployment Capabilities and Limitations
Russian Grand Strategy: Rhetoric and Reality

Selected Publications

Edward Geist and Dara Massicot , "Understanding Putin's Nuclear 'Superweapons' ," SAIS Review of International Affairs

Dara Massicot, "Anticipating a New Russian Military Doctrine in 2020: What it Might Contain and Why it Matters," War on the Rocks, 2019

, "Ukraine Needs Help Surviving Airstrikes, Not Just Killing Tanks," Defense One, 2022

, "Lengthening the Bridge: the Role of Current Weapons and Emerging Technologies in expanding the Pre-nuclear Phase of Conflict ," NATO Defense College , 2021

Languages

Russian

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: BBC World Service; Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; CNN; C-SPAN, Washington Journal; euroenews; Foreign Affairs; Foreign Policy; Geopolitics Decanted by Silverado; MSNBC, Morning Joe; New York Magazine; NPR, All Things Considered; NPR, Morning Edition; PBS, NewsHour; Radio Free Europe; Times Radio, UK; War on the Rocks; The World, Public Radio; Voice of America; WBUR.org (Boston), Here and Now; WHYY News

Commentary

Military Personnel Retention

The Russian Military's Looming Personnel Crises of Retention and Veteran Mental Heath
Russia's looming troop-retention and veteran-treatment problems are already visible on the horizon, even though they have been delayed by policy. By invading Ukraine, Russia has created a wave of severe trauma that will soon crash over its own country.
Jun 1, 2023
The Economist
Russia

Russian Troops Know How Little They Mean to Putin
Over the past year, the Russian military has sustained staggering losses—over 100,000 casualties, thousands of pieces of armored equipment, and several squadrons of fighter jets and helicopters. But Russia isn't stopping. Newly mobilized Russian troops, knowing they are being used as cannon fodder, have made public appeals to be spared.
Feb 23, 2023
New York Times
Ukraine

One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React
We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out war—and share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Here's what they said.
Feb 20, 2023
Russia

Why Vladimir Putin Is Likely to Be Disappointed
None of the Kremlin's recent gambits—annexation, mobilization or personnel shuffles—can overcome the larger problems facing Russia's military. And in the months ahead, its difficulties will only worsen.
Oct 18, 2022
New York Times
Russia

Russian Forces in Ukraine: Muddling Through
The Russian armed forces have suffered tens of thousands of casualties and lost more than 5,000 pieces of equipment. These deficits will make it hard for Russia to hold regions in Ukraine that it may soon try to annex. To succeed, Moscow will have to replenish personnel and equipment at scale—tasks that will prove extremely difficult.
Aug 15, 2022
Foreign Affairs
Russia

Russia's Ambitions and the War in Ukraine: Q&A with Dara Massicot
Dara Massicot is a senior policy researcher at RAND who specializes in Russian military strategy. In this interview, she discusses Russia's war in Ukraine, its incorrect assumptions about Ukraine's will to fight, and how hard it's going to be for Russia to restore its military capabilities.
Jun 29, 2022
Military Personnel

The Russian Military Has Failed Its Sons
The Russian military has a long history of mistreating its personnel and their frightened families. The military's culture of disregard for the lives and well-being of its personnel has done more than undermine their combat performance; it has also tanked their morale and will to fight.
May 18, 2022
Foreign Affairs
Ukraine

Ukraine Needs Help Surviving Airstrikes, Not Just Killing Tanks
A Russian large-scale multidomain operation would be devastating for the Ukrainian military and people, and Ukraine should work to prevent that. But steps can also be taken to reduce the effects of the air and missile strikes that would likely lead off such an operation.
Jan 19, 2022
Defense One
Russia

Summit a Chance to Clarify U.S.-Russia Relations: RAND Call With Experts
RAND experts discuss possible topics of conversation and potential takeaways from the upcoming summit between the United States and Russia. The summit will be a chance to rebuild and review the countries' fraught relationship.
Jun 10, 2021
photo</a> courtesy of Office of the Russian President/<a href="http://en.kremlin.ru/about/copyrights">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International</a>"/>
Military Doctrine

Anticipating a New Russian Military Doctrine in 2020: What It Might Contain and Why It Matters
The United States and its allies should anticipate the possibility of an updated Russian military doctrine as early as 2020. Evaluating this document closely is important for understanding Russian threat perceptions and the leadership's methods to address those threats.
Sep 9, 2019
War on the Rocks

Publications

Journal Article
What Russia Got Wrong: Can Moscow Learn From Its Failures in Ukraine?
Russia's struggles in Ukraine cannot be explained only as endemic military problems. Is Russia capable of learning from its failures?
Mar 1, 2023
Testimony
Russian Military Operations in Ukraine in 2022 and the Year Ahead
Testimony presented before the U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Services on February 28, 2023.
Feb 28, 2023
Report
Russia's Evolution Toward a Unified Strategic Operation: The Influence of Geography and Conventional Capacity
In this report, RAND researchers examine the reasons behind Russia's evolution toward a unified strategic operation, as well as the capabilities that would be necessary to execute key conventional offensive tasks in such an operation.
Feb 13, 2023
Multimedia
The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Indo-Pacific Region
Policymakers and scholars discuss the impact of the war in Ukraine on the Indo-Pacific. Presenters examined the conflict from the perspective of Japan and the United States as well as the possible impact it may have on the international order.
Nov 10, 2022
Report
Understanding Russian Coercive Signaling
Russia has consistently engaged in signaling activities toward the United States and its allies in recent years. The authors analyze this behavior to provide a better understanding of its drivers and practical guidelines for assessing future events.
Sep 29, 2022
Report
Disrupting Deterrence: Examining the Effects of Technologies on Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century
The authors examined potential implications of emerging technologies for deterrence in the context of U.S. national security policy. They identified long-term effects on two major aspects of the deterrence dynamic -- effectiveness and stability.
Apr 14, 2022
Report
Security Cooperation in a Strategic Competition
In this study, RAND researchers examined the current role of security cooperation efforts as a tool in the emerging strategic competition among the United States, Russia, and China.
Apr 6, 2022
Report
Russia's Growing Presence in Africa: A Geostrategic Assessment
This report presents an empirically rigorous description of where Russia is involved in Africa, where it is most likely to become involved in the future, and what implications this might have for U.S. Air Forces Africa's regional strategy.
Jan 31, 2022
Report
Analysis of Russian Irregular Threats
The authors of this report describe strategic global trends related to Russian global influence and behavior and provide an overview and assessment of hostile activities that Russia has undertaken in the face of these trends.
Nov 8, 2021
Journal Article
Can a Pragmatic Relationship With the Taliban Help Russia Counter Terrorism?
Neither the United States nor Russia wants to see Afghanistan become a haven for international terrorist groups. For now, Russia is taking a pragmatic approach to the Taliban in that it has a relationship with the group that the United States does not.
Sep 8, 2021
Report
Russian Grand Strategy: Rhetoric and Reality
What is Russia's declared grand strategy? How do its actions and resource decisions match its declarations? The authors of this report offer answers to these questions and suggest implications for U.S. policymakers.
Aug 16, 2021
Report
Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security
Russia has long used political, military, economic, informational, and clandestine tools against countries in the Black Sea region. In this report, the authors present elements of a Western strategy to counter Russian malign influence and aggression.
Oct 5, 2020
Report
Russia's Limit of Advance: Analysis of Russian Ground Force Deployment Capabilities and Limitations
Analysis of Russian military capabilities reveals stark limitations in Russia's ability to safely and effectively deploy and sustain ground forces around the world.
May 27, 2020
Report
Russia's Limit of Advance: Scenarios
Russia's ability to deploy military forces around the world is significantly depleted from the Soviet era. This report describes the strengths and weaknesses of Russia's ground force deployment capacity.
May 27, 2020
Research Brief
Meeting Europe's 21st Century Security Challenges: Reimagining Conventional Arms Control
The authors of this report outline new conventional arms control measures to lower the risk of conflict in Europe and replace existing, outdated measures.
Apr 29, 2020
Report
A New Approach to Conventional Arms Control in Europe: Addressing the Security Challenges of the 21st Century
Through a combination of interviews, workshops, and structured analysis on the causes of potential conflict, the authors of this report outline new conventional arms control measures to lower the risk of conflict in Europe.
Apr 27, 2020
Report
The Future of the Russian Military: Russia's Ground Combat Capabilities and Implications for U.S.-Russia Competition
Researchers analyze societal, political, economic, and demographic factors that undergird Russian military power. They also make projections about how Russian ground combat capabilities will evolve in the future and how the U.S. Army can respond.
Jun 18, 2019
Research Brief
What Will Russian Military Capabilities Look Like in the Future?
RAND researchers analyzed the development of Russia's military capabilities over the next 20 years -- with a focus on ground combat -- and the implications of that development for U.S.-Russian competition and for the U.S. Army.
Jun 18, 2019
Report
The Russian Way of Warfare: A Primer
This perspective provides a primer on how Russia's military might fight in the event of a major conflict against a peer or near-peer adversary.
Dec 7, 2017
Report
Strengthening Strategic Stability with Russia
This report analyzes trends in strategic stability between Russia and the United States, examines Russian views on the subject, and assesses current prospects for stemming the erosion of strategic stability.
Jul 7, 2017

Multimedia

2:26

Russian Military Operations in Ukraine in 2022 and the Year Ahead
Feb 28, 2023
60:45

RAND Experts Discuss the First Year of the Russia-Ukraine War
Feb 2, 2023
01:31:18

The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Indo-Pacific Region
Sep 15, 2022
36:59

RAND Experts Discuss the Biden-Putin Summit
Jun 10, 2021
55:20

The Future of U.S.-Russia Relations
Oct 9, 2018