This report — part of a four-volume series — explores where and how the United States, China, and Russia are competing for influence in Latin America; what kinds of interests they have in the continent; where and why competition might turn into conflict; what form that conflict might take; and the implications for the United States, particularly the Department of the Air Force.
Strategic competition between the United States and China colors how bilateral science and technology collaboration is interpreted in the United States. The objective of this report is to quantify and describe three types of scientific and technological flows between the United States and China to help assess the net effect of these types of flows on U.S. national security.
Document submitted June 5, 2023, as an addendum to testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Natural Resources, Subcommittee on Indian and Insular Affairs on May 16, 2023.
Since about 2000, the world has been in a period that mixes some aspects of modern life and a much more substantial attenuation of others and features weakening states, fragmenting societies, imbalanced economies, pervasive threats, and the informalization of warfare. This report examines how the U.S.-China rivalry might unfold in this neomedieval era. Many theories about why and how great powers compete will need to be reconsidered.
This report — part of a four-volume series — explores where and how the United States, China, and Russia are competing for influence in the Middle East; what kinds of interests they have in the region; where and why competition might turn into conflict; what form that conflict might take; and the implications for the United States, particularly the Department of the Air Force.
This report explores Chinese military thinking about next-generation psychological warfare, with a special focus on the applications of emerging technologies and implications for the United States. As the U.S. military increases its focus on China, it is important to understand how Chinese psychological warfare capabilities may evolve and what this would mean for Chinese strategic behavior in a crisis or conflict.
As Pacific Air Forces pursues evolving operational concepts of employment designed to improve operational resiliency, questions about the fragility of the combat support (CS) enterprise persist. This report presents a framework to assess necessary elements of the CS enterprise — including base, theater, and global resources — for operating in a hybrid push-pull system as a means to mitigate uncertainty and adversary actions.
Testimony presented before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Natural Resources, Subcommittee on Indian and Insular Affairs on May 16, 2023.
The study described in this report assessed the potential for the United States to receive support in air component capabilities from partners and allies in the event of a major combat contingency in the Indo-Pacific. This report focuses on the geopolitical side of the equation: whether partners and allies have the willingness to support U.S. operations. A companion report focuses on technical and operational considerations.
The mystery surrounding the so-called Havana Syndrome illustrates the challenge of mustering a response to a national security threat when the threat, the underlying method, and the actor behind the threat are not understood with certainty. This report explores the applicability of existing concepts for deterrence and compellence using brief case studies.
The Department of Defense has become increasingly focused on competition with China and Russia and the possibility of great power war. RAND researchers generated four plausible near-term war scenarios and assessed how they could shape the postwar strategic environment. These scenarios show the complex relationship between wartime and postwar goals, highlighting the importance of considering postwar outcomes in prewar planning.
The authors of this report seek to provide an engaging and structured narrative to clearly describe the U.S. Army's role throughout the Indo-Pacific region in the present day and into 2035. The authors present three scenarios that span from competition occurring in the present day to potential crisis and conflict in the year 2035, using an illustrated narrative to communicate the breadth and complexity of the U.S. Army's roles in the region.
The Department of Defense (DoD) has hypothesized that the demand signal for uncrewed systems (UxS) in the coming years will strain the capacity of the defense industrial base (DIB). DoD asked the RAND Corporation to report on relevant risks, issues, and opportunities to support DoD's ongoing activities. The authors of this report analyze a number of aspects of UxS and provide recommendations on strengthening the DIB.
This report explores where and how the United States, China, and Russia may be competing for influence in secondary theaters (Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America); where and why competition might turn into conflict; what form that conflict might take; and what implications the findings have for the U.S. government at large, the joint force, and the Department of the Air Force.
Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on April 13, 2023.
Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on April 13, 2023.
The authors conducted a tabletop exercise to assess the geopolitical implications of Taiwan's semiconductor dominance and the vulnerabilities of the semiconductor supply chain. The exercise revealed that there are generally no good short-term options for responding if China attempts to unify with Taiwan and that a concerted effort should be made to reduce the concentration of semiconductor production in Taiwan.
The authors examine the military implications of intrastate proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state. The research was conducted using a review of existing literature and case studies of four particularly relevant instances of proxy warfare, including the First and Second Indochina Wars, the 2014–early 2022 Donbas War, and the Houthi Rebellion.
This report synthesizes the findings and recommendations from two companion reports on intrastate proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state. One of these companion reports examines motives and trends for great powers' use of proxy warfare in intrastate conflict, while the other examines the military implications of these wars.
The authors used both quantitative analysis and case studies of China, Iran, and Russia to examine the causes and likely future trends in proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state.
The People's Republic of China's (PRC's) and the People's Liberation Army's (PLA's) understanding of the military balance is fundamentally based on systems warfare concepts. The authors provide a detailed analysis of the factors and components associated with PRC leaders' assessments of the Chinese PLA's strength and the implications for the U.S.-China military balance.
This report, part of a four-part series, describes the potential for U.S. cooperation with China or Russia in the Indo-Pacific on seven issues: securing a free and open Indo-Pacific, ensuring the defense of key allies and partners, expanding cooperation with new partners in Southeast Asia, ensuring peace in the Taiwan Strait, achieving the denuclearization of North Korea, countering terrorism, and deepening U.S. geostrategic ties with India.
To what extent can the United States still cooperate with China and Russia in certain areas even in this era of strategic competition? On which issues? What are the obstacles, the potential benefits, and the risks associated with great power cooperation? This report, the first of a four-part series, presents the overarching findings of a study that explored these questions.
To what extent can the United States still cooperate with China and Russia on global commons issues even in this era of strategic competition? This report, part of a four-part series, describes the potential for U.S. cooperation with China or Russia on eight global commons issues, including freedom of access to space, countering violent extremist organizations, and promoting global stability.
This report, part of a four-part series, describes the potential for U.S. cooperation with China or Russia in Europe and the Middle East on seven issues: broader Euro-Atlantic security, Baltic security, Balkan security and strategic orientation, Turkey's regional role and strategic orientation, the future of Ukraine, Middle East stability and peace processes, and countering Iran and its proxies.
