Michael S. Pollard

@MichaelSPollard on Twitter

Senior Sociologist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School

Santa Monica Office

Education

Ph.D. and M.A. in sociology, Duke University; M.A. and B.A. in sociology, University of Victoria

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Michael S. Pollard is a senior sociologist at the RAND Corporation and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His primary research areas include social networks and health (physical, mental, and health behaviors), demography, and family. His recent work has focused on the health implications of different types of friendship and romantic relationships, including an ongoing six-year project tracking adult social networks and alcohol use using nationally representative data. He also studies voter beliefs and behaviors, and led the RAND 2016 Presidential Election Panel Survey project, tracking voter beliefs and intentions for a year leading up to the election, as well as leading 2014 and 2018 midterm election studies. He has conducted work on veteran demographics and well-being, and has an additional line of research on recruiting individuals for the Army and Reserve Components. His work has been published in numerous academic journals and peer-reviewed RAND reports. Pollard received his Ph.D. in sociology from Duke University.

Research Focus

Recent Projects

Adult Social Networks and Well-Being
RAND 2016 Presidential Election Panel Survey and RAND 2014 & 2018 Midterm Election Opinion Study
Current and Future Demographics of the Veteran Population: 2014-2024
Exploring the Formation of an American Veterans Panel
Context of Adolescent Risk Behaviors In Networks (CARBIN)

Selected Publications

Pollard, Michael S., J.S. Tucker, & H.D. Green., "Adult Alcohol Use and Consequences During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the US.," JAMA Network Open, 3(9), 2020

Ernesto F.L. Amaral, Michael S. Pollard, Joshua Mendelsohn, and Matthew Cefalu. , "Current and Future Demographics of the U.S. Veteran Population: 2014-2024. ," Population Review, 57, 2018

Pollard, Michael S., Joan S. Tucker, Harold D. Green, Kayla de la Haye, and Dorothy L. Espelage, "Adolescent Peer Networks and the Moderating Role of Depressive Symptoms on Developmental Trajectories of Cannabis Use," Addictive Behaviors, 76, 2018

Pollard, Michael S., Joan S. Tucker, Kayla de la Haye, Harold D. Green & David P., "A Prospective Study of Marijuana Use Change and Cessation Among Adolescents," Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 144, 2014

Karney, Benjamin R., David S. Loughran, & Michael S. Pollard, "Comparing Marital Status and Divorce Status in Civilian and Military Populations," Journal of Family Issues, 22, 2012

Pollard, Michael S., Joan S. Tucker, Harold D. Green, David Kennedy, & Myong-Hyun Go, "Friendship Networks and Trajectories of Adolescent Tobacco Use," Addictive Behaviors, 68, 2010

Wu, Zheng, Margaret J. Penning, Michael S. Pollard, and Randy Hart, "In Sickness and in Health: Does Cohabitation Count?" Journal of Family Issues, 24, 2003

Pollard, Michael S. and S. Philip Morgan, "Emerging Parental Gender Indifference? Sex Composition of Children and the Third Birth," American Sociological Review, 67, 2002

Honors & Awards

Bronze Medal, 2021, RAND
Blue Ribbon Award, 2004, 2008, Population Association of America

Commentary

Military Recruitment

The Army Should Be Looking for a Few Older Soldiers
Recruiting older people to enlist in the Army could help increase numbers, quality, and talent. Individuals who enlist over the age of 21 perform better as soldiers on several metrics. Recruiters have noted that older recruits are of higher quality, more focused, and more motivated.
Apr 7, 2023
Defense One
International Diplomacy

Do Americans Know Who Their Diplomats Are? Or What They Do?
Americans have a limited understanding of how diplomats are selected and how diplomacy interacts with other elements of the U.S. national security establishment. Efforts to better inform and engage the American public about the work of diplomacy and who American diplomats are would lead to a greater understanding of the job and its people.
Jun 20, 2022
The Hill
Vaccination

Who Can Effectively Champion the Vax?
Vaccine hesitancy appears to be one more hurdle in ending the COVID-19 pandemic. The CDC would typically lead a campaign to overcome it, but Americans' trust in the CDC has declined measurably. Health care professionals may be more effective messengers when it comes to COVID-19 vaccines.
Apr 9, 2021
MedPage Today
U.S. Postal Service

The USPS Is a Public Service, Not a Business
As Congress and the White House debate how to assist the Postal Service, it will be important to understand the effects of proposed cost-cutting measures on mail delivery of vital services, smaller and rural communities, low-income communities, and the USPS's broader public safety and security functions.
Apr 6, 2021
The National Interest
U.S. Postal Service

The United States Postal Service Is More 'Essential' Than You Thought
The U.S. Postal Service is an essential service that delivers mail to every address in the country, connects rural communities, and contributes to public safety. But it is still mistakenly thought of as a private business that should be able to turn a profit.
Aug 25, 2020
The Hill
Terrorist Bombings

Austin Bombings Highlight a Potential Vulnerability in the Mail Delivery System
USPS is better than private couriers at identifying and detecting suspicious packages. Given that they are increasingly handling
Apr 17, 2018
Inside Sources
Survey Research Methodology

Why the Polls Were Wrong
RAND's Presidential Election Panel Survey, like other polls, overpredicted the popular vote. But since it focused on the decisionmaking process and how that translated into behaviors, the data could provide deep insights into what happened and how it took pollsters by surprise.
Nov 14, 2016
U.S. News & World Report
The Latest from the RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey
RAND's panel survey examines voter attitudes, intentions, and choices, and how these change throughout the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Some sizeable shifts in positions occurred in survey results from December to March.
Apr 7, 2016
The RAND Blog
RAND Kicks Off 2016 Presidential Election Panel Survey
RAND's panel survey examines voter attitudes, intentions, and choices, and how these change throughout the 2016 U.S. presidential election. What sets this effort apart from public opinion surveys and political polls is that it surveys the same people over the course of the election.
Jan 27, 2016
The RAND Blog
Do Young 'Elites' Favor Income Redistribution?
Young 'elites' -- employed Americans who are 40 or younger, with high household incomes and graduate degrees -- and especially Democratic elites have a strong preference for income redistribution.
Oct 8, 2015
The RAND Blog
Epidemic

How the Public Perceives Ebola Risk in the United States
The Ebola outbreak in Africa and the cases in the United States weighed heavily on the minds of policymakers and the public. While the Ebola threat was (and is) certainly real, many Americans greatly overestimated their chances of contracting the deadly disease.
Mar 30, 2015
The RAND Blog
United States

The Great American Working Vacation
For years, vacations were a time for Americans to reset and renew, a time away from work. But more and more, Americans check their email, take calls, and work while on vacation.
Jan 19, 2015
Newsweek
Marriage and Divorce

Gay Marriage Gains Support, but It's Still a Partisan Issue
Survey data provides evidence that the majority of American voters support the legalization of gay marriage and think it should be decided at the federal level. Republicans are substantially less likely to support legalization, and lower income, lower educational attainment, being older, and being non-white are significantly associated with lower levels of support.
Dec 29, 2014
Newsweek
Republicans May Make Gains in Midterm Election, but Democrats Remain Strong Nationally
The Republican Party has a strong chance of maintaining control of the House of Representatives and possibly even gaining control of the Senate. But survey results suggest that, while individual races may vary, support for Republican candidates nationwide may be less than support for Democratic candidates.
Nov 4, 2014
The RAND Blog
Parenting

Adults Are Concerned About Sons Playing Football, Especially the More Highly Educated and Obama 2012 Voters
According to new data, 44 percent of American adults wouldn't be comfortable letting their sons play football. Roughly the same percentage was uncomfortable with their sons playing ice hockey.
Nov 4, 2014
The RAND Blog
Survey Says: House, Senate Races Too Close to Call
Recent survey data suggests competitions for both houses of Congress are too close to call. While reported probability of voting for a given party has remained constant overall, churn in individual responses indicates some voters are changing their minds.
Oct 27, 2014
The RAND Blog
Voters Give Republicans an Edge in Senate Races, House Too Close to Call
Significantly more survey respondents anticipate Republicans will take the Senate for their state compared to those who anticipate Democrats will. However, there is not a clear difference in opinion regarding the race for the House.
Oct 16, 2014
The RAND Blog
With Midterm Elections Less Than a Month Away, New Survey Data Shows Many Voters Have Made Up Their Minds
Survey responses indicate many U.S. voters already know how they'll cast their ballots in the upcoming midterm elections. But RAND's unique methodology provides an interesting perspective on those who don't lean strongly toward Republican or Democratic candidates.
Oct 9, 2014
The RAND Blog
New Survey Data Indicates Increasing Polarization in the Ways Democrats and Republicans View the Role of Government in Reducing Income Inequality
Today, Democrats are more than six times likelier than Republicans to believe the U.S. government should play a role in reducing income inequality. This is not due to differences in age, gender, education, or income distributions among the two parties.
Oct 9, 2014
The RAND Blog

Publications

Journal Article
Effect of Child Benefit Payments on Child Outcome Expenditures in South Korea
Using longitudinal data, Korea's child benefit programs are shown to generate positive child outcome expenditures. The effects are higher for lower- and middle-income families, suggesting that policy should target income groups.
May 25, 2023
Report
The Today's Army Spouse Panel Proof-of-Concept Study: Methodological Report
Researchers evaluate the effectiveness of the Today's Army Spouse Panel, an operational proof of concept survey panel of U.S. Army spouses, in recruiting participants and providing timely information representative of Army spouses.
Jan 17, 2023
Report
Today's Army Spouse Panel Survey Results: Impact of COVID-19, August 2020 to May 2021
Survey data from the Today's Army Spouse Panel offer insights into how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected U.S. Army spouses in terms of their finances, employment, and child care and highlight the issues they navigated during this challenging period.
Jan 17, 2023
Report
The Foreign Service and American Public Opinion: Dynamics and Prospects
The authors surveyed members of the American public in 2020 and 2021 to understand public opinion related to diplomacy, diplomats, and the U.S. Foreign Service.
Jun 8, 2022
Report
Identifying Opportunities to Recruit More Individuals Above the Age of 21 into the U.S. Army
Older recruits, as a group, score higher on Army qualification tests and are more likely to reenlist and to be promoted. RAND researchers examined the potential for recruiting individuals older than 21 and derived actionable recommendations.
Mar 16, 2022
Report
Decline in Trust in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Researchers present a subset of results from May and October 2020 surveys fielded through the RAND American Life Panel to assess declines in trust in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.
Apr 5, 2021
Journal Article
Patterns of Substance Use and Associations with Mental, Physical, and Social Functioning: A Latent Class Analysis of a National Sample of U.S. Adults Ages 30–80
This study identifies distinct patterns (classes) of substance use among 30- to 80-year olds, identifies demographic subgroups with the highest probability of class memberships, and compares classes on key indicators of functioning.
Feb 10, 2021
Journal Article
Socioeconomic Status and Well-Being During COVID-19: A Resource-Based Examination
Longitudinal survey data show that depressive symptoms increased, and life satisfaction decreased, from before to during the COVID-19 pandemic. Those with higher education and higher incomes were most adversely impacted.
Oct 28, 2020
Journal Article
Changes in Adult Alcohol Use and Consequences During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the US
A national longitudinal survey of 1,540 adults ages 30-80 in 2019 and 2020 shows that people drank more frequently, and for women in particular, more heavily and with more negative consequences, during the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Oct 16, 2020
Report
The Role of the United States Postal Service in the Age of COVID-19
This report examines how Americans view the United States Postal Service and explores its role as a result of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. The data were collected through the RAND American Life Panel as part of an ongoing analysis.
Jun 22, 2020
Report
Profiles of News Consumption: Platform Choices, Perceptions of Reliability, and Partisanship
In this report, the authors use survey data to explore how U.S. media consumers interact with news platforms, finding mixed perceptions about the reliability of news and that consumer partisanship broadly shapes news consumption behavior.
Dec 10, 2019
Report
Manpower Alternatives to Enhance Total Force Capabilities: Could New Forms of Reserve Service Help Alleviate Military Shortfalls?
Changes in employment stability, family structure, and economic pressures have created challenges for the U.S. military reserve component. Modifying assumptions about Reserve duty can improve recruitment, performance, development, and retention.
Sep 11, 2019
Journal Article
Current and Future Demographics of the Veteran Population, 2014-2024
We estimate that the U.S. veteran population will shrink over the next decade - declining from 21.6 million in 2014 to 17.5 million by 2024, a 19-percent decrease.
Aug 17, 2018
Journal Article
Adolescent Peer Networks and the Moderating Role of Depressive Symptoms on Developmental Trajectories of Cannabis Use
Depression appears to reduce the effect of peer influence on marijuana use among adolescents participating in two separate studies.
2018
Report
The RAND American Life Panel: Technical Description
This document provides a detailed description of the RAND American Life Panel methodology related to sample recruitment, sample retention, and weighting and should be of use for users of the panel and as general reference material.
Jul 26, 2017
Report
The Final Push: Estimated Popular Vote Totals from the October–November Wave of the RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey
The fifth wave of the 2016 RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey reports down-to-the-wire results from our probabilistic poll, as well as which candidate voters expect to claim victory on Election Day.
Nov 1, 2016
Report
Voter Opinions on the Candidates, the Issues, and the Parties: Results from the September RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey
The fourth wave of the 2016 RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey examines how voters' opinions about the candidates, issues, and political parties have changed over time and which candidate voters expect to claim victory on Election Day.
Oct 12, 2016
Report
Americans Are United … in Dissatisfaction with Their Choices: Analysis of the American Electorate at the Start of the 2016 General Election
This third wave of the 2016 RAND Presidential Election Panel examines how Americans' voting intentions have changed over time and the combinations of beliefs and attitudes associated with their support for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
Sep 28, 2016
Report
Ongoing Survey Research on Post-9/11 Veterans
This report provides a detailed listing and analysis of surveys identified in the course of an assessment of ongoing survey research on post-9/11 U.S. military veterans.
Sep 21, 2016
Report
What the Ghosts of Candidates Past Can Tell Us About the General Election: Mapping America's Ideological Terrain, Part 2
As part of the RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey (PEPS) series, researchers use multi-dimensional scaling to explore how voter support for former primary challengers can inform the pathways to success for the presumptive nominees.
Jul 18, 2016
Journal Article
Longitudinal Associations of Homophobic Name-Calling Victimization with Psychological Distress and Alcohol Use During Adolescence
Homophobic name-calling victimization, specifically from nonfriends, can adversely affect adolescent well-being over time and should be addressed in school-based bullying prevention programs.
Jul 14, 2016
Report
Politically Polarized, Ideologically ... Complicated: Mapping America's Ideological Terrain, Part 1
As part of the RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey (PEPS) series, researchers use multi-dimensional scaling to map the ideological terrain of the American electorate and examine its contours.
Jun 19, 2016
Report
Methodology of the 2016 RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey (PEPS)
The 2016 RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey uses the American Life Panel (ALP) to study voting intentions, public opinion, and voter behavior. This document provides a detailed description of our methodology.
Mar 28, 2016
Multimedia
RAND Kicks Off 2016 Presidential Election Panel Survey
Video Q&A on the 2016 RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey (PEPS), which is designed to examine voter attitudes, intentions, and choices, and how these change throughout the 2016 presidential election cycle.
Mar 28, 2016
Report
Current and Projected Characteristics and Unique Health Care Needs of the Patient Population Served by the Department of Veterans Affairs
Veterans who rely on Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health care are older and less healthy than other veterans. Analysis of a range of data sources showed how the veteran population and demand for VA health care could change in the next decade.
Dec 31, 2015
Journal Article
Befriending Risky Peers: Factors Driving Adolescents' Selection of Friends with Similar Marijuana Use
Adolescents often befriend peers who are similar to themselves on a range of demographic, behavioral, and social characteristics, including substance use.
Mar 17, 2015
Journal Article
A Prospective Study of Marijuana Use Change and Cessation Among Adolescents
This study evaluates a range of neighborhood, family, peer network, and individual factors as predictors of marijuana use, change, and non-use over one year, and cessation over six years.
Nov 1, 2014
Report
Methodology of the RAND Midterm 2014 Election Panel
The RAND Midterm Election Panel uses the American Life Panel to study voting intentions, public opinion, and voter behavior. This document describes our methodology.
Oct 9, 2014
Journal Article
Peer Influence on Marijuana Use in Different Types of Friendships
This study examines whether structural features of friendships moderate friends' influence on adolescent marijuana use over time.
2014
Journal Article
Selection and Influence Mechanisms Associated with Marijuana Initiation and Use in Adolescent Friendship Networks
Friends are thought to influence adolescent drug use.
Sep 1, 2013
Draft
Adolescent Friendship Networks and Trajectories of Binge Drinking
Examines how adolescent friendship networks are linked to binge drinking trajectories into young adulthood using the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health.
Jul 2, 2013
Draft
Cohabitation and Marriage Intensity: Consolidation, Intimacy, and Commitment
Reports on cohabitation and marriage data coming from the third wave of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health.
Jun 28, 2013
Draft
Nonmarital Cohabitation, Marriage, and Health Among Adolescents and Young Adults
Investigates the impact of nonmarital cohabitation and marriage on a range of physical and mental health indicators and health behaviors.
Jun 26, 2013
Journal Article
Neighborhood Characteristics and the Initiation of Marijuana Use and Binge Drinking
Neighborhood characteristics such as a higher unemployment rate and greater perceptions of safety appear to influence initiation of marijuana use and binge drinking, respectively. The mechanisms appear to be distinct for each substance.
2013
Journal Article
Peer Influence and Selection Processes in Adolescent Smoking Behavior: A Comparative Study
Adolescent smoking studies find evidence of active peer influence and selection processes.
2013
Journal Article
Comparing Marital Status and Divorce Status in Civilian and Military Populations
Since military operations began in Afghanistan and Iraq, lengthy deployments have led to concerns about the vulnerability of military marriages.
Dec 1, 2012
Journal Article
Resisting Smoking When a Best Friend Smokes: Do Intrapersonal and Contextual Factors Matter?
The strong link between having a best friend who smoked and increased adolescent smoking isn't affected by individual factors such as self-esteem, depressing and access to cigarettes.
Mar 1, 2012
Journal Article
Social Distance and Homophily in Adolescent Smoking Initiation
The association between peer smoking and adolescent smoking initiation appears to be due to both peer selection and direct influence.
2012
Journal Article
Romantic Attraction and Adolescent Smoking Trajectories
This analysis examines smoking behaviors across sexual orientation groups by describing how same- and opposite-sex romantic attraction, and changes in romantic attraction, are associated with trajectories of smoking over six years.
Dec 1, 2011
Research Brief
Sexual Orientation and U.S. Personnel Policy Revisited
Summarizes results of a RAND Corporation study on sexual orientation and U.S. military policy requested by the Senate Armed Services Committee and the Secretary of Defense in order to weigh repeal of the law known as "Don't Ask, Don't Tell."
Dec 23, 2010
Report
Sexual Orientation and U.S. Military Personnel Policy: An Update of RAND's 1993 Study
Shares results of a study on sexual orientation and U.S. military policy, requested by the Senate Armed Services Committee and the Secretary of Defense in order to weigh the repeal of the law known as ''Don't Ask, Don't Tell.''
Nov 18, 2010
Report
Long-Term Effects of Law Enforcement's Post-9/11 Focus on Counterterrorism and Homeland Security
Examines the effects that a stronger focus on homeland security and counterterrorism has had on law enforcement since 9/11, including organizational changes, funding mechanisms, and benefits, costs, and future challenges.
Oct 1, 2010
Journal Article
Friendship Networks and Trajectories of Adolescent Tobacco Use
This article examines how friendship networks in adolescence are linked to tobacco use trajectories through a combination of analytic techniques that traditionally are located in separate literatures: social network analysis and developmental trajectory analysis.
Jul 1, 2010
Journal Article
Adolescent Romantic Relationships and Change in Smoking Status
Whether or not an adolescent stops or begins smoking is influenced by whether or not his/her romantic relationship smokes.
2010
Journal Article
Peer Influence and Selection Effects on Adolescent Smoking
The effects of peer influence and selection on adolescent smoking may be much weaker than earlier studies assumed.
2010
Research Brief
How Would Relaxing the Mailbox Rule Affect Public Safety and Security?
This research brief assesses the potential public safety and security implications of relaxing the U.S. Postal Service's Mailbox Rule, finding that doing so could have a moderate negative impact.
Nov 5, 2008
Report
The Role of the United States Postal Service in Public Safety and Security: Implications of Relaxing the Mailbox Monopoly
The United States Postal Service has a statutory monopoly to deliver mail to mailboxes, but there are arguments to relax that monopoly. This study assesses the public safety concerns of doing so and makes recommendations to address these concerns.
Oct 7, 2008
Journal Article
Long-term Economic Benefits Attributed to IVF-conceived Children: A Lifetime Tax Calculation
Lifetime net taxes paid from a child relative to the child's initial IVF investment represent a 700% net return to the government in discounted US dollars from fully employed individuals.
2008
Journal Article
Measuring Cohabitation in Add Health
Cohabitation is swiftly and increasingly becoming a normative experience, and researchers have been forced to respond quickly to keep up with the rapid changes. The authors document cohabitation data from the recent third wave of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health).
2007
Report
The Repopulation of New Orleans After Hurricane Katrina
Estimates the repopulation of New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina to guide redevelopment planning, using estimates of pre-Katrina population, current housing habitability, and future reconstruction of flood-damaged housing.
Mar 10, 2006