Karl P. Mueller

Senior Political Scientist; Faculty Member, Pardee RAND Graduate School

Washington Office

Education

Ph.D. in politics, Princeton University; B.A. in political science, University of Chicago

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Karl P. Mueller is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. He specializes in research related to military and national security strategy, particularly coercion, deterrence, and escalation.

Mueller has written and lectured on a wide variety of subjects, including airpower theory, grand strategy, economic sanctions, nuclear weapons, Baltic and Nordic defense issues, space deterrence, and wargaming. Among his recent unclassified RAND publications are The Air War Against the Islamic State (2021), Innovation in the United States Air Force: Evidence from Six Cases (2016), Precision and Purpose: Airpower in the Libyan Civil War (2015), Denying Flight: Strategic Options for Employing No-Fly Zones (2013), Dangerous Thresholds: Managing Escalation in the 21st Century (Forrest E. Morgan et al., 2008), and Striking First: Preemptive and Preventive Attack in U.S. National Security Policy (2006).

His current projects focus on the use of airpower in the Russia-Ukraine War, strategic competition with Russia and China, defense and deterrence strategies for middle powers and small states, and developing expert-adjudicated wargames for examining future conflict scenarios in Europe and Asia.

Before joining RAND in 2001, Mueller was a professor of comparative military studies at the U.S. Air Force's School of Advanced Air and Space Studies (SAASS). He is also a faculty member in the Pardee RAND Graduate School and an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University. He earned his Ph.D. in politics from Princeton University.

Research Focus

Concurrent Non-RAND Positions

Adjunct Professor, Johns Hopkins University

Previous Positions

Professor of Comparative Military Studies, USAF School of Advanced Air and Space Studies (SAASS); Adjunct Professor, Security Studies Program, Georgetown University

Recent Projects

Russia's Air War in Ukraine
Wargaming Future Conflicts
Deterrence, Escalation, and Crisis Stability
Alternative U.S. Grand Strategies
Defense of the Baltic States

Selected Publications

Priebe, Miranda, Kristen Gunness, Karl P. Mueller, and Zachary Burdette, The Limits of Restraint: The Military Implications of a Restrained U.S. Grand Strategy in the Asia-Pacific, RAND Corporation (RR-A739-4), 2022

Frederick, Bryan, Samuel Charap, Scott Boston, Stephen J. Flanagan, Michael J. Mazarr, Jennifer D. P. Moroney, and Karl P. Mueller, Pathways to Russian Escalation Against NATO from the Ukraine War, RAND Corporation (PE-A1971-1), 2022

Wasser, Becca, Stacie L. Pettyjohn, Jeffrey Martini, Alexandra T. Evans, Karl P. Mueller, Nathaniel Edenfield, Gabrielle Tarini, Ryan Haberman, and Jalen Zeman, The Air War Against the Islamic State: The Role of Airpower in Operation Inherent Resolve, RAND Corporation (RR-A388-1), 2021

Mueller, Karl P., Paper Wargames and Policy Making: Filling the Baltic Gap or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the D6, Battles Magazine (EP-66660), 2016

Grissom, Adam R., Caitlin Lee, and Karl P. Mueller, Innovation in the United States Air Force: Evidence from Six Cases, RAND Corporation (RR-1207), 2016

Mueller, Karl P., Denying Flight: Strategic Options for Employing No-Fly Zones, RAND Corporation (RR-423), 2013

Karl P. Mueller "The Nature of Escalation," in Morgan, Forrest E., Karl P. Mueller, Evan S. Medeiros, Kevin L. Pollpeter, and Roger Cliff, Dangerous Thresholds: Managing Escalation in the 21st Century, RAND Corporation (MG-614), 2008

Mueller, Karl P., Jasen J. Castillo, Forrest E. Morgan, Negeen Pegahi, and Brian Rosen, Striking First: Preemptive and Preventive Attack in U.S. National Security Policy, RAND Corporation (MG-403), 2006

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: Aftenposten (Oslo); Apostrophe International, Ukraine; Atlantic Monthly; Boston Globe; Houston Chronicle; Issues in Science and Technology; Kansas City Star; Los Angeles Times; Newsweek; New York Times; NPR; Pacifica Radio Network; Washington Times

Commentary: CNN; Defense One; U.S. News & World Report

Commentary

Ukraine

One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React
We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out war—and share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Here's what they said.
Feb 20, 2023
Military Strategy

Might Russia Turn to Terror Bombing Civilians in Ukraine?
Recent Russian missile attacks against civilian targets in cities far away from the front lines have killed scores of Ukrainians, leading to widespread outrage. These events raise the question of whether the war in Ukraine is entering a new phase in which terror attacks might become common.
Jul 29, 2022
The RAND Blog
International Diplomacy

North Korea Is Not Like Libya
The prospect of a U.S.-North Korea summit has led to analogies between the present case and that of Libya, which abandoned its longstanding quest to develop nuclear weapons in 2003. But a better precedent would be the 2015 deal that froze Iran's nuclear weapons program.
Jun 1, 2018
Reuters
Wargaming

In Defense of a Wargame: Bolstering Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank
A series of wargames examined the potential results of a Russian invasion of the Baltic states. While such an invasion appears unlikely, its consequences would be so dangerous that not taking steps to deter it more robustly would be imprudent.
Jun 14, 2016
War on the Rocks
Syria

A No-Fly Zone Over Syria: Q&A with Karl Mueller
Some are advocating a no-fly zone in Syria to protect civilians from both ISIS and forces loyal to Assad. What constraints complicate establishing a no-fly zone and realizing its expected benefits? And how might Assad supporters, such as Russia, respond?
Oct 15, 2015
Air Warfare

NATO's Campaign in Libya Offers Salient Lessons for the Air War Against ISIL
The NATO air campaign that helped defeat Qaddafi's regime in Libya has received relatively little mention in public discussion of the ongoing air strikes against ISIS. But the campaign in Libya offers at least five lessons that deserve greater attention today.
Nov 25, 2014
Defense One
Iraq

What's Going on in Iraq?
While the United States could embark on a much wider war in Iraq, there's little reason to think it will rush to do so or that using airpower to help defend the Kurds will make such an escalation inevitable.
Aug 14, 2014
U.S. News & World Report
Iraq

Would U.S. Air Power Work in Iraq?
With the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) making significant gains over the past week, including advancing closer to Baghdad, U.S. President Barack Obama is reportedly considering whether to deploy U.S. air power to assist Iraq's armed forces. But what would such an intervention mean in practical terms? And how effective an option would it be?
Jun 18, 2014
CNN

Publications

Research Brief
The Aftermath of a Great Power War
RAND researchers drew on historical great power wars to develop four scenarios illustrating how hypothetical wars between the United States and either China or Russia could produce unanticipated consequences — even for the state that is victorious.
May 9, 2023
Report
Alternative Futures Following a Great Power War: Volume 1, Scenarios, Findings, and Recommendations
RAND researchers generated four plausible near-term great power war scenarios and assessed how they could shape the postwar strategic environment.
May 9, 2023
Research Brief
Managing the Escalation Risks of U.S. Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific
This brief describes how the United States can select and shape its military activities in the Indo-Pacific region to deter Chinese aggression against U.S. allies and partners while also limiting the risks of escalatory Chinese reactions.
Jan 12, 2023
Report
Responding to a Limited Russian Attack on NATO During the Ukraine War
This Perspective outlines key considerations for U.S. policymakers charged with planning responses to a potential limited Russian attack on U.S. allies or U.S. forces in Europe.
Dec 20, 2022
Report
Managing Escalation While Competing Effectively in the Indo-Pacific
This report assesses how China may react to U.S. military activities in the Indo-Pacific. It provides a framework of factors likely to determine Chinese responses and advises how the characteristics of activities may affect the risk of escalation.
Nov 30, 2022
Report
Anticipating Chinese Reactions to U.S. Posture Enhancements
This report provides a framework of key factors to aid U.S. policymakers in assessing how China may react to shifting U.S. posture in the Indo-Pacific. The authors apply the framework to hypothetical posture enhancements to offer insights.
Oct 25, 2022
Report
Pathways to Russian Escalation Against NATO from the Ukraine War
The potential for Russia to escalate the ongoing war in Ukraine by attacking a U.S. or allied target is a significant concern. This Perspective identifies four potential escalation pathways and accompanying key considerations for U.S. policymakers.
Jul 26, 2022
Report
The Limits of Restraint: The Military Implications of a Restrained U.S. Grand Strategy in the Asia-Pacific
RAND researchers propose possible warfighting scenarios in the Asia-Pacific region that could guide defense planning if the United States adopted a grand strategy of restraint. Researchers also describe how U.S. posture in the region would change.
Mar 31, 2022
Research Brief
The Role of U.S. Airpower in Defeating ISIS
The United States used airpower in Syria and Iraq to halt ISIS's momentum and help defeat the organization, without committing a large number of ground forces.
Feb 12, 2021
Report
The Air War Against the Islamic State: The Role of Airpower in Operation Inherent Resolve
Airpower played a pivotal role in the U.S.-led fight against the Islamic State from 2014 to 2019 and contributed to the success of Operation Inherent Resolve, but airpower alone would not have been likely to defeat the militant organization.
Feb 5, 2021
Report
Evaluating Future Trends in Support of the Air Force Strategic Environment Assessment: Discussion and Results from a Structured Workshop
This report presents plausible futures based on nine trends in the categories of Geopolitical, Military & Warfare, and Human & Workforce to assist Air Force strategic planning in developing the Air Force Strategic Environment Assessment.
Oct 21, 2019
Report
Limited Intervention: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Limited Stabilization, Limited Strike, and Containment Operations
The report analyzes the strategic effects of low-cost and small-footprint military options across a range of irregular warfare operations and in a range of operational environments.
Feb 22, 2018
Journal Article
Conventional Deterrence Redux: Avoiding Great Power Conflict in the 21st Century
Deterrence in the twenty-first century presents some new challenges to strategists, but there is little basis for thinking that our problems with deterrence derive from our well-developed theories about it being obsolete.
2018
Report
U.S. Strategic Interests in the Middle East and Implications for the Army
This perspective examines threats to U.S. interests in the Middle East and factors associated with success and failure in U.S. military interventions, and offers recommendations for the Army as it prepares for future involvement in the region.
Dec 7, 2017
Journal Article
Airpower in Counter-Terrorist Operations: Balancing Objectives and Risks
Overview and analysis of harnessing airpower in counter-terrorist operations.
Dec 6, 2017
Journal Article
Paper Wargames and Policy Making: Filling the Baltic Gap or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the D6
RAND has a long backstory in wargaming.
Oct 5, 2016
Report
Innovation in the United States Air Force: Evidence from Six Cases
Air Force senior leaders have asked whether the service is sufficiently innovative today and what can be done to make it more innovative for the future. This report assesses historical cases of Air Force innovation or apparent failure to innovate.
May 13, 2016
Report
Precision and Purpose: Airpower in the Libyan Civil War
A team of U.S. and international experts assesses the impact of various nations' airpower efforts during the 2011 conflict in Libya, including NATO allies and non-NATO partners, and how their experiences offer guidance for future conflicts.
Jul 8, 2015
Report
Denying Flight: Strategic Options for Employing No-Fly Zones
Presents a preliminary look at no-fly zones as a strategic approach to conflict intervention, with an emphasis on the forms they might take, their potential utility, and their probable limitations.
Dec 27, 2013
Report
Airpower Options for Syria: Assessing Objectives and Missions for Aerial Intervention
Considers the goals of a potential aerial intervention in the Syrian civil war and examines the requirements, military potential, and risks of five principal missions that intervening air forces might be called on to carry out.
Aug 30, 2013
Report
Air Power
Surveys the subject of air power as an area of research in international security studies and provides a bibliography of significant works and useful online resources.
Aug 4, 2010
Report
Dangerous Thresholds: Managing Escalation in the 21st Century
This analysis of escalation dynamics and approaches to escalation management draws on a range of historical examples from World War I through Somalia in the early 1990s to inform escalation-related decisionmaking.
Jul 8, 2008
Research Brief
Counterinsurgency Operations May Require Modernization of the U.S. Airlift Fleet
This research brief looks at the role of airlift in U.S. counterinsurgency operations and the types of investment in new airlift assets that may be needed to meet the unique challenges of these operations.
May 22, 2007
Report
Airlift Capabilities for Future U.S. Counterinsurgency Operations
The current U.S. military airlift fleet can perform most counterinsurgency airlift missions effectively but is likely to need reinforcement if such operations continue at current levels.
Apr 28, 2007
Report
Striking First: Preemptive and Preventive Attack in U.S. National Security Policy
RAND Project AIR FORCE studied the post-9/11 U.S. policy shift toward preemptive and preventive attack. It found that military planners should not expect preparing for such operations to be a key driver for change in U.S. military capabilities.
Sep 25, 2006
Research Brief
What is the Future of Striking First in U.S. National Security Strategy?
This research brief reports that the new emphasis on striking first in U.S. national security policy since September 11, 2001, will not likely produce a correspondingly great change in the future shape or use of American military power.
Sep 6, 2006
Research Brief
Building Partner Capacity Is the Key to a Successful Counterinsurgency Strategy
This research brief examines ways the U.S. Air Force can contribute to allies' conterinsurgency efforts by providing advice; education; and, when necessary, physical and technological assistance to partner-nation air forces.
Aug 31, 2006
Report
Air Power in the New Counterinsurgency Era: The Strategic Importance of USAF Advisory and Assistance Missions
History shows that an afflicted nation must itself defeat an insurgency politically and militarily, and the best way to help is to offer advice, training, and equipment.
Aug 16, 2006
Research Brief
Beyond Close Air Support: Forging a New Air-Ground Partnership
RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) concluded that the Army and U.S. Air Force should get beyond a debate over which force supports the other and instead develop a partnership in which either may predominate, depending upon the situation.
Nov 25, 2005
Report
Beyond Close Air Support: Forging a New Air-Ground Partnership
Creating a new partnership to integrate air operations with ground fire and maneuver more effectively on future battlefields.
Feb 28, 2005
Report
Conventional Coercion Across the Spectrum of Operations: The Utility of U.S. Military Forces in the Emerging Security Environment
An introduction to the coercive use of conventional military power.
2003
Report
Totem and Taboo: Depolarizing the Space Weaponization Debate
The debate over space weaponization is typically cast in simplistic, unidimensional terms, while many participants caricature their opponents as naive pacifists or rabid warmongers. This article redraws the subject more realistically.
2003

Quoted

Punishing enemy civilians during a war in the hope that doing so will lead to a victory that cannot be achieved on the battlefield is a tradition with a long and grim history. Such strategies almost invariably fail when the enemy is fighting for something important, but even leaders less ruthless than Putin often turn to them when they are desperate or frustrated.
Source: The RAND Blog
The presence of U.S. military forces, partly, is sort of precautionary in case somebody does decide to try to re-establish the caliphate; a lot of it is about building security cooperation and partner capacity. For the Air Force, a big part of it, presumably, is going to be having a presence to be a protective force, to protect Americans and other partners on the ground...
Source: Air Force Times