Erik E. Mueller

@erikemueller on Twitter

Defense Analyst

Washington Office

Education

PhD Student in political science, University of Minnesota - Twin Cities; M.A. in Middle Eastern Studies, University of Chicago; B.A. in international affairs, Lewis & Clark College

One Page Bio

Overview

Erik E. Mueller (he/him) is a defense analyst at the RAND Corporation. Mueller’s expertise and interests center on violent nonstate actors, North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. Outside of these interests, Mueller has worked on projects studying patient movement, drug production and trafficking, mass attacks, insider threats, political violence, multinational security organizations, extremism, refugees, interoperability, climate change, irregular warfare, public health labs, and right to repair.

Research Focus

Selected Publications

Johnston, Trevor, Erik E. Mueller, Irina A. Chindea, Hannah Jane Byrne, Nathan Vest, Colin P. Clarke, Anusree Garg, and Howard J. Shatz, Countering Violent Nonstate Actor Financing: Revenue Sources, Financing Strategies, and Tools of Disruption, RAND Corporation (RR-A687-1), 2023

Watts, Stephen, Bryan Frederick, Nathan Chandler, Mark Toukan, Christian Curriden, Erik E. Mueller, Edward Geist, Ariane M. Tabatabai, Sara Plana, Brandon Corbin, and Jeffrey Martini, Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: State Motivations and Future Trends, RAND Corporation (RR-A307-2), 2023

Watts, Stephen, Bryan Frederick, Nathan Chandler, Mark Toukan, Christian Curriden, Erik E. Mueller, Edward Geist, Ariane M. Tabatabai, Sara Plana, Brandon Corbin, and Jeffrey Martini, Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: Military Implications, RAND Corporation (RR-A307-3), 2023

Sudkamp, Karen M., Nathan Vest, Erik E. Mueller, and Todd C. Helmus, In the Wreckage of ISIS: An Examination of Challenges Confronting Detained and Displaced Populations in Northeastern Syria, RAND Corporation (RR-A471-1), 2023

Vasseur, Michael, Chad C. Serena, Colin P. Clarke, Irina A. Chindea, Erik E. Mueller, and Nathan Vest, Understanding and Reducing the Ability of Violent Nonstate Actors to Adapt to Change, RAND Corporation (RR-A324-1), 2022

Williams, Heather J., Alexandra T. Evans, Jamie Ryan, Erik E. Mueller, and Bryce Downing, The Online Extremist Ecosystem: Its Evolution and a Framework for Separating Extreme from Mainstream, RAND Corporation (PE-A1458-1), 2021

Commentary

Civilian Military Workforce

Ukraine Is a Breeding Ground for Russian PMCs
Moscow's desire for additional fighters in Ukraine has created a breeding ground for Russian private military company (PMC) development. This explosion of what are essentially private armies is not only shaping the battlefield in Ukraine; it could have devastating impacts long after this conflict ends.
Jun 14, 2023
The Moscow Times
Refugees

Afghan Refugees Are Being Recruited to Join an Iranian Paramilitary
As Western policymakers consider how to deal with Afghan evacuees, including former members of the Afghan security forces, they might consider how to prevent adversaries such as Iran from recruiting Afghan refugees for dangerous and destabilizing operations. Greater attention to these risks may become increasingly important as refugee flows from Afghanistan continue.
Nov 23, 2021
The Hill

Publications

Report
Countering Violent Nonstate Actor Financing: Revenue Sources, Financing Strategies, and Tools of Disruption
Disrupting the financing that violent nonstate actors require is critical for degrading such groups. This report examines the methods used to disrupt this financing and how the Army can contribute to the effort.
May 16, 2023
Report
Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: Overarching Findings and Recommendations
This report synthesizes the findings and recommendations from two companion reports on intrastate proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state.
Mar 9, 2023
Report
Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: State Motivations and Future Trends
The authors used quantitative analysis and case studies of China, Iran, and Russia to examine the causes and likely future trends in proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state.
Mar 9, 2023
Report
Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: Military Implications
The authors examine the military implications of intrastate proxy wars (civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state) via a literature review and four case studies.
Mar 9, 2023
Report
In the Wreckage of ISIS: An Examination of Challenges Confronting Detained and Displaced Populations in Northeastern Syria
The authors examine the humanitarian and security conditions in two Syrian camps for internally displaced persons: al-Hol and Roj. They address concerns about radicalization and highlight challenges in returning displaced residents to their homes.
Mar 9, 2023
Report
Anticipating Chinese Reactions to U.S. Posture Enhancements
This report provides a framework of key factors to aid U.S. policymakers in assessing how China may react to shifting U.S. posture in the Indo-Pacific. The authors apply the framework to hypothetical posture enhancements to offer insights.
Oct 25, 2022
Report
Understanding and Reducing the Ability of Violent Nonstate Actors to Adapt to Change
This report summarizes research into how violent nonstate actors adapt to changes in their operational environments and provides recommendations on how the Army might anticipate such adaptations and mitigate them before they occur.
Jun 6, 2022
Tool
Mass Attacks Defense Toolkit
RAND researchers created this tool to advance efforts to prevent and reduce intentional, interpersonal firearm violence and public mass attacks in the United States.
May 31, 2022
Report
The Online Extremist Ecosystem: Its Evolution and a Framework for Separating Extreme from Mainstream
The authors describe white supremacists' and other extremists' use of the internet and introduce a framework for internet users to categorize virtual platforms and understand their potential to encounter extreme content online.
Dec 2, 2021
Report
An Analysis of Alternative Approaches to Measuring Multinational Interoperability: Early Development of the Army Interoperability Measurement System (AIMS)
Researchers conducted an analysis of alternatives of interoperability measurement systems to support the U.S. Army in achieving interoperability with partners. Researchers identified a new approach, the Army Interoperability Measurement System.
Sep 22, 2021
Report
A Review of U.S. Army Non-Materiel Capability-Development Processes
This report analyzes non-materiel DOTLPF-P (doctrine, organization, training, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, policy) processes to help identify issues and changes to improve how the Army implements non-materiel solutions.
Aug 3, 2021