Terrence K. Kelly

Senior Operations Researcher

Pittsburgh Office

Education

Ph.D. in mathematics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute; M.S.S. in strategic studies, U.S. Army War College; M.S. in computer and systems engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute; B.S., U.S. Military Academy

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Terrence Kelly is a principal mathematician at the RAND Corporation. From 2016 to 2022 he served as the first director of the RAND Homeland Security Research Division and as a RAND vice president.

Over the past decade Kelly has worked on national and homeland security strategy and policies; counterinsurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan; U.S. DoD and Army strategy; and science, technology, and acquisition problems. From 2011 to 2014 Kelly served as a program director in the RAND Arroyo Center, and from 2014 to 2015 as the Arroyo Center’s acting associate director. In 2006 and 2007 Kelly served as director of the Joint Strategic Planning and Assessment Office in the U.S. Embassy, Baghdad, and in 2004 as the director of Militia Transition and Reintegration for the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq. Prior to joining RAND, Kelly served for 20 years as a commissioned officer in the U.S. Army.

Prior to retiring from the Army, Kelly's positions included senior national security officer in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy; chief of staff of the National Critical Infrastructure Assurance Office; legislative liaison officer in the Army's office of legislative affairs; White House Fellow; assistant professor in West Point's Systems Engineering Department and RPI's Mathematical Sciences Department (visiting); command and staff positions in the 82nd Airborne Division and the 8th Infantry Division; and as a staff officer on the Army Staff.

Kelly holds a Ph.D. in mathematics from RPI and a Masters of Strategic Studies from the U.S. Army War College.

Research Focus

Previous Positions

Vice President and Director, Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center; Director, RAND Homeland Security Research Division; U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq; Director, Militia Transition and Reintegration Programs, CPA, Baghdad, Iraq; Senior National Security Officer, Office of Science and Technology Policy, White House Staff; White House fellow; 20-year Army officer

Recent Projects

U.S. policy in Iraq and Afghanistan
Counterinsurgency and stability operations theory and practice
Cybersecurity policy

Selected Publications

Terrence K. Kelly, "Transformation and Homeland Security: Dual Challenges for the U.S. Army," Parameters, 33, 2003

Terrence K. Kelly "The Just Conduct of War Against Radical Islamic Terrorists and Insurgents," in Kelly, Terrence K., The Just Conduct of War Against Radical Islamic Terror and Insurgencies, Cambridge University Press (EP-20070019), 2007

Willis, Henry H., Andrew R. Morral, Terrence K. Kelly, and Jamison Jo Medby, Estimating Terrorism Risk, RAND Corporation (MG-388-RC), 2005

Butz, William, Terrence K. Kelly, David M. Adamson, Gabrielle Bloom, Donna Fossum, and Mihal Gross, Will the Scientific and Technology Workforce Meet the Requirements of the Federal Government?RAND Corporation (MG-118-OSTP), 2004

Honors & Awards

Bronze Star Medal, United States Armed Forces
Outstanding Civil Service Medal, Department of the Army
Medal for Exceptional Civilian Service, Office of the Secretary of Defense

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: KD/PG; The New Republic

Commentary: Foreign Policy; Los Angeles Times; Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Commentary

Ukraine

How Might Ukraine's Counteroffensive End, and What Comes After?
Ukraine may soon launch a counteroffensive against Russian forces entrenched in eastern and southern Ukraine. We consider three ways this counteroffensive might end and their implications for the future.
Jun 14, 2023
RealClearDefense
Russia

Deterring Putin in Eastern Europe
After having gone years without a significant threat from Russia, NATO leaders and legislatures now may be recognizing that the security environment has changed and that the more comfortable political status quo is gone. But if NATO were to decide to stand firmly together, conflict in Europe may be deterred and strategic stability restored.
Dec 16, 2021
The RAND Blog
Security Cooperation

Stop Putin's Next Invasion Before It Starts
The U.S. needs to consider stationing forces in Eastern Europe to support its commitment to protect the independence of the Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania against Russian aggression. If not, and Russia invades, the options available to this or a future U.S. president are stark.
Mar 20, 2015
U.S. News & World Report
North Atlantic Treaty Organization

A Dispatch from the Ukrainian Front
If Putin sought advice about what NATO is thinking, his Russian Western Front Military commander might say that given its current political indecisiveness and lack of military readiness, NATO lacks the capability to launch a credible intervention, but they should watch for changes in the alliance posture.
Sep 5, 2014
U.S. News & World Report
Iraq

Defeating the Islamic State: Crafting a Regional Approach
While ISIL may achieve temporary tactical gains from declaring the caliphate, it made the strategic error of declaring all other Sunni political actors illegitimate. This may provide an opening to build a coalition that can create and implement a regional strategy to attack ISIL.
Jul 22, 2014
warontherocks.com
Military Tactics

U.S., China and an Unthinkable War
Although the China-U.S. agenda is jammed with pressing issues, time must be found to improve procedures and channels to defuse crises and avert military miscalculation. Political leaders should not wait for a crisis before scrutinizing war-fighting plans and insisting on ones that strengthen, not weaken, stability.
Aug 26, 2013
Los Angeles Times
Military Strategy

Escalation Cause: How the Pentagon's New Strategy Could Trigger War with China
Aug 5, 2013
Foreign Policy
Nation Building

Karzai's Second Term a Test for International Community
Afghan President Hamid Karzai begins his second term with his country on the brink of chaos. To establish control, two major elements of reform are necessary, writes Terrence Kelly.
Nov 2, 2009
RAND.org
Timing is Everything
Published commentary by RAND staff: A Tool for Democracy Could Use Some Help by Robert Hunter
Aug 13, 2005
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Contrary to Some Journalistic Snap Judgments, the Iraqi Elections Were Not a Victory for a Theocracy Controlled by Iran
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Feb 20, 2005
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Forum: What's a 'Just War' These Days?
As we move from theory toward practice, Terrence K. Kelly re-examines the standards for an era of prolific weapons of mass destruction.
Feb 16, 2003
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Vigilance Is Our Civic Duty
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Sep 11, 2002
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Publications

Report
Terrorism Net Assessment
In this report, the authors offer a preliminary conception of how to determine the capabilities the United States needs to remain safe from international terrorism.
May 2, 2023
Report
How Will Technology Shape, and Be Shaped By, Policy Choices in the Coming Decades? A Research Agenda from the Technology Futures Policy Summit
The summit gathered 15 top thinkers from industry, academia, and government to evaluate how emerging technologies could change the balance of policymaking and decisionmaking between governments and other actors.
Apr 12, 2023
Report
Knowing the Enemy: Understanding the Islamic State and Principles for Defeating It
RAND researchers outline general principles that U.S. policymakers must consider when conceiving and weighing appropriate strategies to combat the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.
Mar 21, 2017
Report
Smarter Power, Stronger Partners, Volume II: Trends in Force Projection Against Potential Adversaries
This book describes scenarios to test whether the anti-access and area-denial threat to U.S. force projection is growing more severe. They describe plausible U.S. and adversary military actions given current operational capabilities and approaches.
Feb 8, 2017
Report
Smarter Power, Stronger Partners, Volume I: Exploiting U.S. Advantages to Prevent Aggression
The research reported here examined trends in military capabilities among potential U.S. adversaries, and the report proposes an alternative way for the United States to secure its interests.
Oct 12, 2016
Journal Article
Stop Putin's Next Invasion Before It Starts
The U.S. should station forces in Eastern Europe to protect the Baltics from Russian aggression.
Apr 21, 2015
Research Brief
Developing a U.S. Strategy for Dealing with China — Now and into the Future
U.S. military strategy in Asia should include a framework that allows the United States and China to pursue common and individual goals, deters China's use of force to intimidate its neighbors, and postures U.S. forces to support partner militaries.
Sep 2, 2014
Report
The U.S. Army in Asia, 2030-2040
Looking to the 2030-2040 time frame, the U.S. Army will play an important role in helping U.S. policy and military strategy strike a balance between cooperating with China and deterring potential Chinese expansionism.
Sep 2, 2014
Journal Article
Tailored Deterrence: Strategic Context to Guide Joint Force 2020
To prioritize limited resources in accordance with actual defense policies and threats, DOD should develop tailored approaches to deter specific threats to U.S. national security interests.
Jul 1, 2014
Report
Ending the U.S. War in Iraq: The Final Transition, Operational Maneuver, and Disestablishment of United States Forces-Iraq
This book looks at the planning and execution of the U.S. military's exit from Iraq and the transition of responsibilities to the Iraqi government, U.S. embassy, Office of Security Cooperation, USCENTCOM, and other U.S. departments and agencies.
Nov 5, 2013
Research Brief
Smooth Transitions? Lessons Learned from Transferring U.S. Military Responsibilities to Civilian Authorities in Iraq
This brief outlines policy and planning lessons that have been encapsulated in a study of the U.S. military's transition out of Iraq at the end of 2011 and the handover of property and responsibilities to Embassy Baghdad and the government of Iraq.
Nov 5, 2013
Report
Employing Land-Based Anti-Ship Missiles in the Western Pacific
This report illustrates the potential strategic advantages for the United States of a land-based anti-ship missile capability that could be deployed to the Western Pacific in the event of a conflict with China.
Nov 1, 2013
Research Brief
Enhancing Civilian Agency Participation in Stability Operations
Examines the question of how the Army can assist in making key civilian agencies more capable partners to the Army in the planning and execution of stability, security, transition, and reconstruction (SSTR) operations.
Sep 18, 2013
Journal Article
Escalation Cause: How the Pentagon's New Strategy Could Trigger War with China
As the threat to forward-deployed U.S. forces grows, particularly in East Asia, the Pentagon has been pursuing a strategy known as Air-Sea Battle.
Aug 1, 2013
Journal Article
U.S., China and an Unthinkable War: Both Have Planned for a Conflict They Hope to Avoid
The specter of economic doomsday makes war between China and the United States as unthinkable as fear of nuclear doomsday made Soviet-U.S. war. Or does it?
Aug 1, 2013
Report
An Assessment of the Army's Tactical Human Optimization, Rapid Rehabilitation and Reconditioning Program
U.S. Army Special Operations Command asked RAND Arroyo Center to assess its Tactical Human Optimization, Rapid Rehabilitation and Reconditioning (THOR3) program and identify opportunities for improvement in a range of priority areas.
Jun 19, 2013
Periodical
RAND Review: Vol. 35, No. 3, Winter 2011-2012
Stories discuss world demographic trends, Afghan peace prospects, U.S. health care spending, California prisoner reentry, Latin American inequalities, global health, veterans' mental health, highway investments, teacher bonuses, and charter schools.
Jan 13, 2012
Journal Article
Cyber Policy: Institutional Struggle in a Transformed World
When it comes to cyber security, the world today is not the future that U.S. policy promised when cyber security first appeared on the national agenda well over a decade ago.
2012
Report
Security Force Assistance in Afghanistan: Identifying Lessons for Future Efforts
Analyzes security force assistance efforts in Afghanistan, focusing on lessons and themes that emerged from extensive fieldwork in Afghanistan in 2009 and their implications for the U.S. Army.
Sep 7, 2011
Research Brief
Results from the Congressionally Mandated Study of U.S. Combat and Tactical Wheeled Vehicle
Congress requested a study to assess the challenges in fielding U.S. ground combat and tactical wheeled vehicle fleets, including discussion of requirements; capability gaps; technology, operational, and business risks; and recommended actions.
Feb 11, 2011
Report
The U.S. Combat and Tactical Wheeled Vehicle Fleets: Issues and Suggestions for Congress
Congress requested a study of the future U.S. combat and tactical wheeled vehicle fleets to review and make suggestions regarding requirements; capability gaps; technology, operational, and business risks; and modeling and simulation needs.
Feb 11, 2011
Report
Reconstruction Under Fire: Case Studies and Further Analysis of Civil Requirements
Building on a framework for integrating civil and military counterinsurgency (COIN) first described in prior RAND research, this volume presents three detailed case studies and an operational approach for civil COIN.
Jun 8, 2010
Report
Security Cooperation Organizations in the Country Team: Options for Success
Examines options for improving current Defense Department security cooperation organization and practices at the country team level, particularly in countries that are threatened by insecurity or instability.
Mar 5, 2010
Research Brief
Security in Iraq: Emerging Threats as U.S. Forces Withdraw
U.S. withdrawal from Iraq could affect Iraq's internal security and stability, which could, in turn, affect U.S. strategic interests and the safety of U.S. troops and civilians in Iraq. The framework described here can help minimize negative effects.
Jan 21, 2010
Report
Security in Iraq: A Framework for Analyzing Emerging Threats as U.S. Forces Leave
U.S. withdrawal from Iraq could affect Iraq's internal security and stability, which could, in turn, affect U.S. strategic interests and the safety of U.S. troops and civilians in Iraq. The framework provided here can help minimize negative effects.
Jan 5, 2010
Periodical
RAND Review: Vol. 33, No. 3, Winter 2009-2010
Features focus on stabilization missions, grade retention, health financing, and RAND's president; other items discuss the European Union, sodium, health insurance, retail medical clinics, energy efficiency, disaster recovery, and alcohol pricing.
Dec 23, 2009
Multimedia
U.S. Policy in Afghanistan: Basic Questions -- Strategic Choices
Video documenting a RAND-sponsored symposium of experts and journalists addressing assumptions and alternatives for U.S. policy in Afghanistan.
Nov 6, 2009
Report
Integrating Civilian Agencies in Stability Operations
Examines the question of how the Army can assist in making key civilian agencies more capable partners to the Army in the planning and execution of stability, security, transition, and reconstruction (SSTR) operations.
Aug 14, 2009
Report
Withdrawing from Iraq: Alternative Schedules, Associated Risks, and Mitigating Strategies
In studying the withdrawal from Iraq, RAND assessed logistical constraints, trends in insurgent activity, and the implications of the readiness of Iraqi security forces on the size of the residual U.S. force and on security in Iraq and the region.
Jul 21, 2009
Report
Reconstruction Under Fire: Unifying Civil and Military Counterinsurgency
A RAND team studied how civilian counterinsurgency could be conducted more safely in the face of active insurgency, when it can do the most good. Here, they make recommendations for improving the security of civil counterinsurgency under fire.
May 28, 2009
Research Brief
The Department of Defense Can Improve Its Response to and Management of Anthrax Incidents
Assesses the Department of Defense (DoD) response to three potential anthrax-related incidents at DoD facilities in March 2005 and recommends ways that DoD can improve its incident-response capabilities.
Apr 13, 2009
Research Brief
Does the United States Need a New Police Force for Stability Operations?
Considers the creation of a high-end police force for use in stability operations, examining its ideal size, how responsive it needs to be, where in the government it might be located, its needed capabilities, its proper staffing, and its cost.
Apr 8, 2009
Report
A Stability Police Force for the United States: Justification and Options for Creating U.S. Capabilities
Considers the creation of a high-end police force for use in stability operations, examining its ideal size, how responsive it needs to be, where in the government it might be located, its needed capabilities, its proper staffing, and its cost.
Mar 25, 2009
Testimony
An Iraqi Modus Vivendi: How Would It Come About and What Would It Look Like?
Testimony presented before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on April 3, 2008.
Apr 3, 2008
Report
Stabilization and Reconstruction Staffing: Developing U.S. Civilian Personnel Capabilities
Presents a framework for improving U.S. civilian personnel and staffing programs for stability and reconstruction operations.
Mar 8, 2008
Report
Terrorism Risk Modeling for Intelligence Analysis and Infrastructure Protection
Describes how a probabilistic terrorism model can be used to assess terrorist risk and assist intelligence analysis.
Sep 16, 2007
Research Brief
The United States Should Reassess Priorities and Consider Next Steps in Iraq
This research brief summarizes an assessment of approaches that the U.S. government can consider in its efforts to reduce sectarian violence and stabilize Iraq, recommendations to increase the likelihood of success, and possible next steps to take.
Jul 25, 2007
Report
U.S. Policy Options for Iraq: A Reassessment
This book examines possible U.S. strategies for Iraq. It argues that the United States must focus on providing security to Iraq's population and emphasizes the need for policymakers to prepare and plan not only for success, but also for failure.
Jul 15, 2007
Journal Article
The Just Conduct of War Against Radical Islamic Terror and Insurgencies
The author's analysis considers justice from the eyes of the people among whom terrorist and insurgents hide.
2007
Report
Options for Transitional Security Capabilities for America
Once major combat operations have ended, what is the best way to make the transition to lasting stability under the rule of law?
May 25, 2006
Report
Analysis of Department of Defense Plans and Responses to Three Potential Anthrax Incidents in March 2005: Executive Summary
What do three potential anthrax-related incidents at Defense Department mail facilities tell us about the readiness of the Pentagon and its planned responses to such incidents?
Apr 6, 2006
Periodical
RAND Review: Vol. 30, No. 1, Spring 2006
Addresses a set of shortfalls in U.S. performance in Iraq and identifies options for improvement, particularly with respect to sustaining army forces, promoting reenlistments, and rebuilding Iraqi security.
2006
Research Brief
Rebuilding Security Forces and Institutions in Iraq
This research brief describes work documented in Developing Iraq's Security Sector: The Coalition Provisional Authority's Experience (MG-365-OSD).
Dec 20, 2005
Report
Developing Iraq’s Security Sector: The Coalition Provisional Authority’s Experience
Looks at the Coalition Provisional Authority's efforts to rebuild Iraq's security sector and provides lessons learned.
Dec 19, 2005
Report
Estimating Terrorism Risk
This monograph provides a practical definition of terrorism risk, presents a method of estimating it, and demonstrates a framework for evaluating this method. Results support conclusions on how to improve risk-based resource allocation.
Oct 12, 2005
Report
Will the Scientific and Technology Workforce Meet the Requirements of the Federal Government?
Assesses the size and adequacy of the federal workforce for carrying out scientific, technical, engineering, and math-related activities
May 2, 2004
Research Brief
Is the Federal Scientific and Technical Workforce Facing a Crisis?
There is no clear evidence that the federal government faces impending shortages of scientific and technical personnel. However, there are concerns among federal research managers that personnel shortages and skill gaps could emerge in the near futur...
2004
Report
The Office of Science and Technology Policy Blue Ribbon Panel on the Threat of Biological Terrorism Directed Against Livestock
Focuses on the nation's emergency management infrastructure and prioritizes a future research and development portfolio for thwarting potential terrorist bio-attacks against U.S. livestock and related produce.
2004
Report
The U.S. Scientific and Technical Workforce: Improving Data for Decisionmaking
Presents a conference convened to address questions about the adequacy on science and technology manpower in the United States.
2004
Report
Technology Transfer of Federally Funded R&D: Perspectives from a Forum
Presents comments and discussion on a variety of issues to gain a wide perspective on best practices for technology transfer.
2003