Timothy R. Heath

Timothy R. Heath
Senior International/Defense Researcher
Washington Office

Education

Ph.D. in political science, George Mason University; M.A. in Asian Studies, George Washington University; B.A. in philosophy, College of William and Mary

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Timothy R. Heath is a senior international defense researcher at the RAND Corporation. Prior to joining RAND, Heath had over fifteen years of experience in the U.S. government researching and analyzing military and political topics related to China.

In addition to his publications with the RAND Corporation, Heath has published numerous articles and one book. Fluent in Mandarin Chinese, he has extensive experience analyzing China's national strategy, politics, ideology, and military, as well as Asian regional security developments. He has a Ph.D. in political science from George Mason University and an M.A. in Asian studies from The George Washington University. 

Research Focus

Recent Projects

  • The Return of Great Power War: Scenarios of Systemic Conflict Between the United States and China
  • China's Quest for Global Primacy: An Analysis of Chinese International and Defense Strategies to Outcompete the United States
  • China's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts
  • China and the International Order
  • Science Based Scenario Design: A Proposed Methodology to Support Political-Strategic Analysis

Selected Publications

"U.S.-China Strategic Rivalry: Great Power Competition in the Post-Industrial Age," in Lowell Dittmer (ed.), New Asian Disorder: Rivalries Embroiling the Pacific Century, Hong Kong University Press, 2022

Timothy R. Heath, Winning Friends and Influencing People: Naval Diplomacy with Chinese Characteristics, China Maritime Studies Institute , 2020

Timothy R. Heath, "Dispute Control: China Recalibrates Use of Military Force to Support Security Policy's Expanding Focus," Journal of Social, Political, and Economic Studies, 43(1-2), 2018

Timothy R. Heath, William R. Thompson, "Avoiding U.S.-China Rivalry is Futile: Why the Best Option is to Manage Strategic Rivalry," Asian Policy, 13(2), 2018

Timothy R. Heath, "China's Evolving Approach to Economic Diplomacy," Asia Policy, 22(2), 2016

Timothy R. Heath, China's New Governing Party Paradigm: Political Renewal and the Pursuit of National Rejuvenation, Ashgate, 2014

Timothy R. Heath, "What Does China Want? Discerning the PRC's National Strategy," Asian Security, 8(1), 2012

, "Is China Planning to Attack Taiwan? A Careful Consideration of Available Evidence Says No," War on the Rocks, 2022

Honors & Awards

  • Innovation Award, RAND Corporation
  • Army Achievement Medal (Fourth Award), U.S. Army
  • Civilian of the Year, Pacific Command

Languages

Chinese; French

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: AlArabiya.net; al-Watan, Egypt; ARD News, Germany; Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, CSIS; BBC World Service; Bloomberg Television EMEA; Channel News Asia; CNBC Online; CTV News, Canada; Defense & Aerospace Report; The Diplomat; Dwnews, China; FOX News Channel; Gray DC; Here and There, Santa Fe Public Radio; Independent Journal Review; La Razon; Maritime Security; Morning Edition; Newsy; Phoenix TV, China; Radio Free Asia; The Red Line; The Ross Kaminsky Show; Sinovision; South China Morning Post; The Spectator, UK; TaiwanPlus; tbs eFM 101.3MHz - Seoul, S. Korea; Voice of America; Voice of America Chinese; Voice of America Russian; WhoWhatWhy; World Politics Review; WXPI Pittsburgh

Commentary

  • U.S. President Joe Biden shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the G20 leaders' summit in Bali, Indonesia, November 14, 2022, photo by Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
    China

    U.S.-China Rivalry in an Era of Weakening States

    With their weakened state capacity, disengaged publics, and imbalanced economies, the United States and China break the pattern seen in other rivalries between great powers. New theories and ideas will be required to cope with problems largely unknown to the great-power rivals of the recent past.

    Jun 6, 2023

    1945

  • Visitors stand in front of a screen displaying Chinese President Xi Jinping next to a flag of the Communist Party at a military museum in Beijing, China, October 8, 2022, photo by Florence Lo/Reuters
    Military Transformation

    Why Is China Strengthening Its Military? It's Not All About War

    China's military modernization goals serve a variety of political and military purposes, none of which imply any intent to actually start a war. A grasp of the myriad drivers could help observers more accurately assess the danger posed by the PLA's modernization.

    Mar 24, 2023

    Defense News

  • Illustration of two hands playing chess, one with a U.S. flag sleeve and the other with a China flag sleeve, photo by siraanamwong/Getty Images
    China

    Book Review: 'Isolating the Enemy' by Tao Wang

    In his book, Isolating the Enemy: Diplomatic Strategy in China and the United States, 1953–1956, Dr. Tao Wang reviews key moments in the diplomatic strategies of China and the United States between 1953 and 1956. Although the book illuminates fascinating aspects of the period's diplomatic history, it unfortunately does not offer much insight into the reasons for the relative success of these contrasting strategies.

    Apr 27, 2022

    Pacific Affairs

  • People's Liberation Army soldiers are seen in front of a sign marking China's 70th anniversary before a military parade in Beijing, October 1, 2019, photo by Thomas Peter/Reuters
    China

    The China Dream: Never Closer, yet Never More Elusive

    To achieve its goals of national rejuvenation, China needs to become a true world power. But a softening economy and political gridlock make it seem less and less likely that Beijing will realize all of its objectives.

    Oct 1, 2019

    The Hill

  • Sailors stand guard near petrol boats at the Cambodian Ream Naval Base in Sihanoukville, Cambodia, July 26, 2019, photo by Pring Samrang/Reuters
    Military Facilities

    The Ramifications of China's Reported Naval Base in Cambodia

    China and Cambodia have reportedly signed a secret agreement allowing the Chinese navy to use a military facility near Ream, along Cambodia's southern coast, though both countries deny the reports. The installation of a Chinese military facility in Cambodia, if realized, would further complicate an already sensitive and tense situation in the region.

    Aug 7, 2019

    World Politics Review

  • A man visits the Huawei Cyber Security Transparency Centre in Brussels, Belgium, March 5, 2019, photo by Yves Herman/Reuters
    Cybersecurity

    Public Evidence of Huawei as a Cyber Threat May Be Elusive, but Restrictions Could Still Be Warranted

    Although a “smoking gun” of Huawei involvement in government-directed espionage remains elusive, the United States has compelling security and economic reasons to consider limiting the involvement of Chinese telecommunications companies in its domestic networks.

    Mar 7, 2019

    The Hill

  • Chinese People's Liberation Army soldiers take part in a combat training in the Gobi desert in Jiuquan, Gansu province, China, May 18, 2018
    Operational Readiness

    China's Military Has No Combat Experience: Does It Matter?

    China's military has an impressive high-tech arsenal, but its ability to use these weapons and equipment remains unclear. The one asset that the People's Liberation Army lacks is combat experience. But there is no consensus—either within Chinese military circles or among foreign analysts—on how much that matters.

    Nov 27, 2018

    Foreign Policy

  • L-R Chinese Minister of National Defense Gen. Wei Fenghe, Chinese Communist Party Office of Foreign Affairs Director Yang Jiechi, U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis, and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo hold a joint news conference at the U.S. Department of State, Washington, D.C., November 9, 2018
    China

    U.S.-China Relations See Potential Thaw, but Risk of Military Crisis Remains

    Deep disagreements between China and the United States on an array of issues, exacerbated by political incentives to avoid compromise, raise a persistent risk of military crisis. Stepping up official communication, building mechanisms to manage crises, and dialing back antagonistic behavior could help cut the risk of miscalculation and help stabilize ties.

    Nov 20, 2018

    Newsweek

  • U.S. President Donald Trump with China's President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, November 9, 2017

    What Does America's Political Polarization Mean for Competition with China?

    Political polarization in the United States potentially carries significant implications for America's strategic competition with China. Leaders in Washington will need to work to mitigate the effects of polarization and manage competition with China in a stable, effective manner.

    Nov 9, 2018

    The Hill

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks during the 2018 Beijing Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on September 4, 2018
    China

    What Does China's Pursuit of a Global Coalition Mean for World Politics?

    As disputes between Beijing and Washington over trade and other issues intensify, analysts have highlighted domestic factors as reasons why President Xi Jinping may resist compromise. However, China's pursuit of a greater international leadership role likely plays an overlooked, but increasingly important role.

    Oct 8, 2018

    Pacific Forum

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin following Russian-Chinese talks at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Russia, September 11, 2018
    Joint Operations

    Huge Military Drills Show Both the Limits and the Durability of China-Russia Ties

    The appearance of military cooperation between China and Russia masks deep strategic distrust and suspicion. But despite these real limitations, strong incentives and a lack of alternatives provide a sturdy foundation for a continued strategic partnership going forward.

    Sep 11, 2018

    World Politics Review

  • Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, China's President Xi Jinping, South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa, Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Brazil's President Michel Temer pose for a group picture at the BRICS summit meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa, July 26, 2018
    China

    China Prepares for an International Order After U.S. Leadership

    In Beijing's estimation, key geopolitical developments have increased the possibility that China will face a power transition with the United States in coming years. In response, Chinese officials are laying the groundwork to manage that transition and ensure a leading role for their country in the emerging international order.

    Aug 2, 2018

    Lawfare

  • U.S. President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping attend a state dinner at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, November 9, 2017
    International Diplomacy

    Without Reform and Cooperation with China, the International System Cannot Hold

    No rule-based international order can survive without Chinese support. Reforms are needed to address Beijing's concerns and provide it with a continued stake in the order. The trick is to decide where compromise is acceptable for U.S. interests and to draw clear lines around principles where it is not.

    Jun 25, 2018

    The National Interest

  • Honour guards at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, July 4, 2016
    China

    To Protect Interests Abroad, China Will Feature a Diverse Array of Military, Non-Military Forces

    As Beijing grapples with the realities of an economy increasingly susceptible to disruption from distant influences, experts debate how the Chinese military might protect overseas interests. Some have speculated that China may seek a military like that of the United States. Others have dismissed such a possibility.

    Apr 9, 2018

    The National Interest

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping shakes hands with Zhang Dejiang after a vote on a constitutional amendment lifting presidential term limits, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, March 11, 2018

    China's Strengthening of Communist Party Rule Is Not Just a Power Grab

    Strengthening the leadership role of the Communist Party and removing term limits for President Xi Jinping have raised fears about increasingly authoritarian Chinese politics. While repression may well increase, boosting the party’s influence also increases the chance of badly needed reforms concerning governance and the economy.

    Apr 2, 2018

    World Politics Review

  • Chinese New Year parade in Australia
    Information Operations

    Beijing's Influence Operations Target Chinese Diaspora

    China's efforts to cultivate support in and control diaspora communities threaten to worsen inter-ethnic tensions, aggravate political and social polarization, and harm the civil rights and freedoms of citizens in other countries. Such activities merit close attention by democratic governments seeking to counter China's influence operations.

    Mar 1, 2018

    War on the Rocks

  • U.S. and Chinese officials meet prior to the U.S.-China Diplomatic and Security Dialogue in Washington, D.C., June 21, 2017
    International Diplomacy

    The Competition for Status Could Increase the Risk of a Military Clash in Asia

    The prospect of conflict involving China remains remote and Beijing remains committed to China's peaceful development. But if Beijing at some point concludes that the United States and its allies have successfully stymied its aspirations, China may be tempted by riskier methods to assert its status.

    Feb 2, 2018

    Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative

  • China's President Xi Jinping speaks at the opening ceremony of the "CPC in dialogue with world political parties" high-level meeting, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, December 1, 2017
    China

    China's Endgame: The Path Towards Global Leadership

    The coming years are likely to see a deepening contest between the U.S. and China in the diplomatic, economic, cyber, and information domains, even as the risks of major war remain low. In its 19th CCP Congress report, Beijing articulated for the first time an ambition to contend for global leadership.

    Jan 5, 2018

    Lawfare

  • U.S. President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping meet business leaders at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, November 9, 2017
    International Diplomacy

    America's New Security Strategy Reflects the Intensifying Strategic Competition with China

    The United States unveiled its National Security Strategy last week, describing China as a revisionist power that actively competes against the United States and its allies and partners. China had strong words of its own in response. Both will need to navigate the relationship in a way that supports stability and prosperity for both countries.

    Dec 27, 2017

    World Politics Review

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives for the opening of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, October 18, 2017
    Military Transformation

    What Does the 19th Party Congress Mean for the PLA?

    The People's Liberation Army has a lot at stake in China's Communist Party Congress. In addition to changes in military leadership, reports issued at a Party Congress invariably contain directives to the military that can add impetus to ongoing initiatives.

    Oct 18, 2017

    China Policy Institute Blog

  • The aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson, left, along with ships from the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, transit the East China Sea, March 9, 2017
    Threat Assessment

    U.S.-China Tensions Are Unlikely to Lead to War

    The U.S.-China relationship today may be trending towards greater tension, but the relative stability and overall low level of hostility make the prospect of an accidental escalation to war extremely unlikely.

    May 1, 2017

    The National Interest

  • U.S. President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping at the Mar-a-Lago estate after a bilateral meeting in Palm Beach, Florida, April 7, 2017
    China

    Rocky Road Ahead Likely for U.S.-China Relations

    The first summit with President Trump and China's President Xi Jinping downplayed contentious issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea. But the differences run deep, and frustration is palpable on both sides. Moreover, the competition for international leadership continues.

    Apr 11, 2017

    The Cipher Brief

  • U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence attend a meeting with congressional leaders to discuss trade deals at the White House in Washington, February 2, 2017

    Strategic Consequences of U.S. Withdrawal from TPP

    America's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership has exacerbated doubts about U.S. international leadership and America's role in Asia. Future trade agreements could face similar fates until they do a better job outlining how domestic workers can prosper.

    Mar 27, 2017

    The Cipher Brief

  • Soldiers drive a CM33 Clouded Leopard infantry fighting vehicle during the annual Han Kuang military drill simulating the PLA invading the island, in southern Taiwan, August 25, 2016
    International Diplomacy

    Why China Will Not Unify with Taiwan by 2020 — and Beijing Lacks Compelling Military Options

    The prospects for peaceful unification of China and Taiwan continue to dim. Nothing Beijing has tried to woo or coerce Taiwan has worked. For those determined to compel Taiwan's unification, military subjugation remains a last option. But it would only worsen China's security environment.

    Mar 21, 2017

    Lawfare

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping attends the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, January 17, 2017
    Globalization

    China Stressed a Growing Interest in Global Trade and Governance at Davos

    President Xi Jinping became the first Chinese leader to appear at the annual gathering of the World Economic Forum last week. He gave a keynote speech that defended global trade and criticized protectionism. His speech reflected, in part, the reality that China has profited enormously from decades of globalization.

    Jan 24, 2017

    U.S. News & World Report

  • U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 Summit in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, China, September 4, 2016
    China

    Taking Stock of the U.S. Rebalance and the Contest for Influence in Asia

    Since 2011, the U.S. has carried out measures designed to bolster its influence in Asia, a region that is projected to play a central role in driving global economic growth. Despite steady progress, with increased diplomatic outreach to China and its neighbors, doubts about the U.S. pivot to Asia have persisted.

    Jan 19, 2017

    World Politics Review

  • Man looking at chart of China's stock market

    Cracks in the Chinese Powerhouse

    Like most countries that have had rapid development, China is struggling to transition from a highly successful but unsustainable economic model. Beijing faces the additional challenge of executing difficult reforms in the face of an inhospitable global economy.

    Dec 19, 2016

    The Cipher Brief

  • Japan's Self Defence Force holds an opening ceremony of a new military base on the island of Yonaguni in the Okinawa prefecture, March 28, 2016
    International Diplomacy

    The Risks of an Accelerating Rivalry Between China and Japan

    China and Japan have a long history of antagonism but their competition for influence in Asia has recently expanded in the economic, diplomatic, and security domains. The U.S., although a staunch ally of Japan, has served as a mediator. Weakening the U.S. role could aggravate Sino-Japanese tensions to a destabilizing degree.

    Dec 12, 2016

    World Politics Review

  • People's Liberation Army naval soldiers stand on a military vessel at a naval base in Hong Kong, July 1, 2016
    Military Transformation

    Book Review: 'China's Military Transformation' by You Ji

    China's military has undeniably made tremendous strides in recent years. You Ji's book provides a collection of interesting and often perceptive observations on political and intellectual aspects of a rapidly modernizing People's Liberation Army.

    Jul 5, 2016

    H-Net

  • The aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis approaches the fast combat support ship USNS Rainier during a replenishment at sea in the South China Sea, March 4, 2016
    China

    South China Sea Spat a Symptom of U.S.-China Jockeying for Advantage

    A spate of high-profile diplomatic feuds and military actions related to the South China Sea has raised concern about the direction of U.S.-China relations. Neither country is well positioned politically or economically to engage in a long-term, antagonistic relationship, let alone a major conflict.

    Jun 27, 2016

    World Politics Review

  • Soldiers of China's People's Liberation Army Navy patrol at Woody Island, in the Paracel Archipelago, which is known in China as the Xisha Islands, January 29, 2016
    China

    Beijing Ups the Ante in South China Sea Dispute with HQ-9 Deployment

    China's recent deployment of HQ-9 missiles to the Paracel Islands signals its determination to consolidate its gains in the South China Sea, regardless of criticism by the United States and its allies.

    Mar 29, 2016

    Jamestown Foundation's China Brief

  • The Chinese Luyang II-class guided missile destroyer Jinan and other ships in formation during a passing exercise, November 7, 2015
    China

    China's Naval Modernization: Where Is It Headed?

    The PLA Navy is expanding its capabilities and operations to reduce vulnerabilities in China’s near seas, but also to aggressively support its expanding global ambitions and challenge U.S. leadership in Asia.

    Feb 10, 2016

    World Politics Review

  • S-400 Triumf SAMs during the rehearsal for 2009 Victory Day parade in Moscow
    Missile Defense

    How China's New Russian Air Defense System Could Change Asia

    The Russian S-400 TRIUMF surface to air missile entered the media spotlight when Moscow deployed the system after Turkey's shoot-down of a Russian plane near the Syria border on Thanksgiving Day. This episode demonstrated the S-400's potential as a weapon with strategic effects, a role that China may seek to exploit in future crises.

    Jan 21, 2016

    War on the Rocks

  • An Armed Forces of the Philippines marine sentry stands watch as the guided-missile destroyer USS Chung-Hoon arrives in Puerto Princesa to participate in Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training
    Security Cooperation

    Book Review: 'Strategic Asia 2015-16, Foundations of National Power in the Asia-Pacific'

    Which nations have the resources and motivations to either cooperate with or frustrate Washington's designs? What liabilities and assets reside with each country? The book, Strategic Asia 2015-16, surveys some of the most powerful nations in Asia with such questions in mind.

    Nov 30, 2015

    War on the Rocks

  • USS Lassen conducts exercises with Korean and Turkish navy ships
    China

    How Will China Respond to Future U.S. Freedom of Navigation Operations?

    On October 27, the USS Lassen carried out the first freedom of navigation patrol to challenge China's territorial claims in the South China Sea. In assessing China's potential response to follow-on operations, the extremes of either complete inaction or a military attack can be ruled out.

    Oct 29, 2015

    Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, CSIS

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping and First Lady Peng Liyuan arrive at Paine Field in Everett, Washington, September 22, 2015
    China

    Xi's Visit Exposes Mismatch in U.S and Chinese Expectations

    Chinese President Xi Jinping's U.S. visit this week appears to face serious headwinds. Contrasting U.S. and Chinese priorities will likely lead to disappointment on both sides.

    Sep 23, 2015

    World Politics Review

  • Senior Colonel Yang Yujun holds a copy of the annual white paper on China's military strategy, Beijing, China, May 26, 2015
    China

    The 'Holistic Security Concept': The Securitization of Policy and Increasing Risk of Militarized Crisis

    Reflecting critical developments under the Xi administration, China's recent 'Military Strategy' white paper signals a turn toward a potentially more coercive phase of China's rise.

    Jun 27, 2015

    China Brief

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks during a news conference in Beijing, November 12, 2014
    China

    China's Emerging Vision for World Order

    China's mulling of the risks and benefits of assuming greater global responsibility reveals its judgment that it can't entrust the protection of its interests to U.S. goodwill.

    May 21, 2015

    The National Interest

  • A Chinese Coast Guard vessel in the South China Sea maneuvers to block a Philippine supply ship with members of the media aboard, March 29, 2014
    China

    China's Island-Building Stirs Fears, but Creates Openings for U.S.

    News of proposed Navy patrols nearby disputed islands claimed by China suggests that the United States is toughening its response to Beijing's assertive territorial claims in the South China Sea.

    May 18, 2015

    World Politics Review

  • Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe shakes hands with China's President Xi Jinping during a welcoming ceremony of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, in Beijing, November 11, 2014
    Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation

    A Thaw in Asia

    Chinese President Xi Jinping's meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe this week raised hope for the near term that the leaders of both countries can ease tensions between Asia's two largest economies.

    Nov 17, 2014

    U.S. News & World Report

  • U.S. and China flags
    International Diplomacy

    Engagement and Assurance: Debating the U.S.-Chinese Relationship

    The risks of strategic rivalry with China deserve serious attention. But the best way to avoid the destabilizing effects of military competition is sustained U.S. engagement with China and the region -- precisely what U.S. policy has been seeking to achieve.

    Nov 6, 2014

    The National Interest

Publications