Operational Readiness

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Extremist Beliefs Among Veterans, Space Traffic, Teacher Well-Being: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on whether extremist beliefs are more prevalent among veterans, why it's time to manage traffic in outer space, crises facing the Russian military, and more.

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The Russian Military's Looming Personnel Crises of Retention and Veteran Mental Heath

Russia's looming troop-retention and veteran-treatment problems are already visible on the horizon, even though they have been delayed by policy. By invading Ukraine, Russia has created a wave of severe trauma that will soon crash over its own country.

Dara Massicot @MassDara

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How Big of a Fleet? A Look at the U.S. Navy's Size and Readiness Needs

Congress is trying to nudge the Navy to expand the size of the fleet. But without comparable levels of funding for personnel, maintenance, technology upgrades, logistics and other support functions, a larger fleet could come at the cost of readiness.

Bradley Martin, Scott Savitz

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Ukraine and the New Two War Construct

The United States might look at its support of Ukraine as a potential model for future defense strategy. It would require a substantial expansion of the defense industrial base, but it might offer a plausible way to keep American objectives and resources in line without sacrificing too much in either.

Raphael S. Cohen

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The Problem of Intra-Theater Lift: Moving Things Around in the Pacific Area of Responsibility

The U.S. joint force's ability to move materiel and people across oceans and continents is unique among militaries. But there are challenges all along the supply chain, addressed by different agencies and military commands in a complicated set of processes, and a collective reluctance to assume responsibility for the mission.

Bradley Martin, Christopher G. Pernin

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Revealing the Impact of Non-Lethal Weapons

Non-lethal weapons can be useful to U.S. military forces in a variety of contexts, but the Pentagon faces a challenge in ensuring their appropriate use and evaluating the potential effects of their deployment.

Scott Savitz, Krista Romita Grocholski

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The Ukrainian Military Has Defied Expectations. Here Is How U.S. Security Aid Contributed

Ukraine's military was unprepared and largely ineffective when Russia's military seized Crimea in 2014. By 2022, Ukraine appears to have overcome at least some of the earlier challenges. Did U.S. security assistance make the Ukrainian military more effective?

Louis-Alexandre Berg, Andrew Radin @andrewmradin

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NATO's Open-Door Policy, U.S. Health Care Payments, Climate Migrants: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on NATO’s open-door policy, U.S. health care payments, supporting climate migrants, and more.

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Two Choices in Ukraine

Facing existential risk, Ukraine may consider unprecedented steps. Urgent measures might help it protect against a Russian invasion. And if the immediate threat were to ebb, Ukraine might use the time gained to prepare for potential future threats.

William Courtney @courtneywmh, Khrystyna Holynska

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The Future and Past of War and Disease

The U.S. government is actively reviewing its efforts to counter biological attacks and the Department of Defense is taking steps that could allow it to perform day-to-day operations during a pandemic, but it might not be preparing adequately for a future large-scale operation during a more-transmissible and lethal pandemic.

Michael Spirtas, Stephen Webber

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A Taiwan Contingency and Japan's Counterstrike Debate

The United States and Japan could be drawn into a conflict in the event of Chinese aggression against Taiwan whether they like it or not. Allied defense planning could consider how Japan might further reinforce deterrence and if necessary improve its ability to contribute to the common defense.

Scott W. Harold, Satoru Mori

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The National Guard Can Do It, but That Doesn't Mean It's a Good Idea

Should the National Guard provide an enduring quick reaction force for Washington, D.C., as apparently recommended in a recent report to Congress? Policymakers might ask themselves whether using the National Guard for this mission is actually the best solution.

Christopher M. Schnaubelt

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Pandemics and the U.S. Military: Lessons from 1918

Military leaders today face a more benign security environment than their predecessors did during the 1918 Spanish flu. The U.S. military is engaged in operations abroad, but it's not fighting a great-power war. The Pentagon has every reason to focus on stemming the COVID-19 pandemic even if it has to absorb some downgrade in readiness.

Michael Shurkin

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Vietnam Is the Chinese Military's Preferred Warm-Up Fight

China's last major war experience gave it virtually zero lessons to apply to future armed conflict. At some point the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will need to test its new capabilities and the training it has honed over time. There are at least three reasons why Vietnam is likely in the PLA's crosshairs.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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An Army Caught in the Middle Between Luddites, Luminaries, and the Occasional Looney

The creation of the Army Futures Command is an important and necessary move for the U.S. Army. For the first time since the 1970s, the Army has a major command focused on preparing it for future war with a peer competitor.

David E. Johnson

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NATO Needs a European Level of Ambition

As NATO finalizes its new political guidance designed to shape future military forces, it has the chance to both strengthen Europe’s commitment to burden-sharing and relieve American concern about the creation of a new European Army. Building an enhanced European capacity within NATO entails some risk, but the benefits may outweigh concerns.

Hans Binnendijk, Gene Germanovich

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Is Japan's New Defense Plan Ambitious Enough?

Under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan has significantly increased capabilities to meet increasing regional security challenges. But Tokyo may need to do more to manage the complex security environment surrounding Japan.

Michael J. Green, Jeffrey W. Hornung

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China's Military Has No Combat Experience: Does It Matter?

China's military has an impressive high-tech arsenal, but its ability to use these weapons and equipment remains unclear. The one asset that the People's Liberation Army lacks is combat experience. But there is no consensus—either within Chinese military circles or among foreign analysts—on how much that matters.

Timothy R. Heath

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Are We Truly Prepared for a War with Russia or China?

The U.S. Department of Defense will likely need a strategy to overcome a war with either Russia or China. As threats from these two countries grow, what can the United States do now to prepare for major conflict?

Michael Spirtas

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Does Japan Need an Aircraft Carrier?

Japan has not possessed an aircraft carrier in more than 70 years. But that may soon change as the Japanese government is debating retrofitting a class of destroyers to turn them into aircraft carriers. Considering both operational needs and resources limitations, does an aircraft carrier for Japan make sense?

Jeffrey W. Hornung

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Japan's Aegis Ashore Defense System

For nearly 20 years, Japan has used the North Korea threat as a legitimate rationale to build its missile defense system and cooperate closely with the U.S. in its development. This argument remains as true today as it was before the flurry of regional diplomacy began earlier this year.

Jeffrey W. Hornung

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Exploring the Allied Decisions on Military Mobility in Europe

Debates about defense expenditure and concerns over the unity of NATO overshadowed decisions on defense and deterrence in Europe made during the recent NATO summit and European Council meetings. Both high-level events brought significant and tangible conclusions with potential impacts on defense, deterrence, and readiness in Europe.

Marta Kepe @martakepe

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Reshaping U.S. Military Forces: Getting the Process Right

War gaming and analysis show that American forces face serious operational challenges. What steps could be taken to ensure the United States can defeat aggression by its greatest adversaries?

David A. Ochmanek

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Consider The E-Tool

We generally trust the entrenchment tool. In a peacetime hike, we might only need a polycarbonate trowel, but in a future war, we might really need full-size picks and shovels. However ingeniously designed, two pounds of metal origami cannot replace a full-size pick and a shovel.

James T. Quinlivan

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The More Things Change: Explaining Continuity in Defense Strategy

United States presidential administrations from Clinton to Trump have championed different approaches to military and defense policy. The verbiage of the National Defense Strategy, however, remains relatively the same and the numbers reflect more incremental rather than monumental shifts.

Raphael S. Cohen

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On RAND's Research Findings Regarding Transgender Military Personnel Policy

In September 2015, the Department of Defense asked RAND to initiate a study on the implications of allowing transgender personnel to serve openly. Since its publication, the research has been widely viewed as the most comprehensive and authoritative analysis on this topic. RAND stands by the study's research approach, analysis, and findings.

Agnes Gereben Schaefer

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Revising Japan's Peace Constitution: Much Ado About Nothing

Despite Abe’s legislative majority, it is unclear whether he has enough political capital to convince the public of the need for a constitutional revision on the Self-Defense Force. Japan’s security policies are heavily constrained by legal and normative constraints and Abe’s plan would likely do little more than codify the status quo.

Jeffrey W. Hornung

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The Chairman the Pentagon Needs

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joe Dunford says that to fight and win 21st century wars, the department should find a way to globally integrate below the secretary of defense. To do so, the chairman's role would have to expand to allow him to advise the secretary on the allocation and transfer of forces for transregional, multi-functional, and multi-domain operations.

Paula G. Thornhill, Mara E. Karlin

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Why Japan Needs Long-Range Strike Capabilities

Japan's pacifist constitution allows it to exercise force only when its survival is threatened and there are no other means to repel the attack. But North Korea's advancing military capabilities have drastically changed the threat environment. Japan no longer has the luxury to be complacent about its security threats.

Jeffrey W. Hornung

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Military Power Is All About People: A Return to Personnel Policy

Ensuring the strength of U.S. armed forces is critical to U.S. national security and the key source of strength is its people. True investment in personnel is a long-term legacy and an investment worthy of attention and policy debate to ensure the United States continues to recruit and retain the most effective fighting force in the world.

Radha Iyengar Plumb, Brad R. Carson, et al.

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Giving Japan a Military

After 70 years, Japan may finally be on the cusp of acquiring its own military. Legally, that is. Prime Minister Abe has proposed a change to Japan's constitution to give legal standing to the Self-Defense Forces, and it's long overdue.

Jeffrey W. Hornung

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Japan's Mistaken South Sudan Withdrawal

Being a proactive contributor to peace involves risk if a country is serious about gaining real-world experience. Pulling out of South Sudan deprives Japan's Self-Defense Force of crucial operational experience and sends a confusing message to the United States and the international community.

Jeffrey W. Hornung

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Transgender Troops: Fit to Serve

The Pentagon's decision to open the ranks to transgender service members was informed by months of RAND research into the costs and numbers involved.

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How Defense Choices Affect Military Readiness

Because the U.S. cannot afford to prioritize and defend against every possible threat, it must accept risk with each decision. And the more adaptive the adversary, the more likely it will confound readiness investments made previously to confront it.

Chad C. Serena, Colin P. Clarke

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It's Getting Harder to Define Military Readiness. Here's What to Do About It.

Focusing on one type of threat or the other — whether state or non-state in its general nature — is becoming a less tenable option as the United States considers how to assess and improve its military readiness.

Chad C. Serena, Colin P. Clarke

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Presence vs. Warfighting: A Looming Dilemma in Defense Planning

Presence involves global military deployments to counter potential aggressors, reassure allies, underwrite extended deterrence, build partner capacity, and more. It is now as important, in terms of its stabilizing and deterrent effect, as warfighting capabilities. Yet U.S. force posture falls short.

Michael J. Mazarr @MMazarr

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Reimagining and Modernizing U.S. Airborne Forces for the 21st Century

Many of the challenges the U.S. will face in the coming years across the range of military operations could be deep inland and require rapid response. Airborne forcible entry — with reimagined and modernized airborne forces — would offer decisionmakers options in crises that they do not possess today.

David E. Johnson, John Gordon IV

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Will the PLA Reforms Succeed?

Reforms within the Chinese People's Liberation Army are in the process of delivering sweeping changes to its day-to-day operations, despite concerns held by some military members. Whether or not the overall implementation is successful as envisioned, assessing the operational implications of the reforms will require more time.

Cristina L. Garafola @CLGarafola

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The Tension Between What the Army Is and What It Does

Cooperation and integration of the Army's three components is important, but what's most important is effectiveness in war and the key to that is trained, properly organized, and ready forces.

Gian Gentile

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Planning for the 'Army of the Future'

What must the Army be ready to do as part of a joint force, now and in the future? What capacities and capabilities should the Army have in order to be ready? The NCFA comes up short in its answers to both of these questions.

David E. Johnson

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Ground Combat

The U.S. Army needs to pay attention to state-sponsored irregular forces, whose numbers are growing. Such groups represent the type of adversary U.S. ground forces are likely to face.

David E. Johnson

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The U.S. Army Must Remain Prepared for Battle

Converting the Army into a force suited only for homeland defense or humanitarian missions abroad, without the ability to fight sophisticated foes as part of a joint force, would result in an unprepared Army.

Gian Gentile

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Don't Chop the Air Force — Look to the Reserves

The Air Force's latest budget plan proposes to cut 25,000 airmen. The recommendations made by the National Commission on the Structure of the Air Force (NCSAF) offer an alternative — and less risky — way forward.

Janine Davidson, Margaret C. Harrell

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A Year After Repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell

Despite the fears of some, but in line with the experience of every other institution, both in the US and abroad, that has experienced such a transition, there have been no significant problems, writes Bernard Rostker.

Bernard D. Rostker

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History Shows Danger of Arbitrary Defense Cuts

As America embarks on a tough strategic journey in the aftermath of Iraq, and contends with an ailing economy, it is wise to be mindful of the difference between hope and fact, writes Paula G. Thornhill.

Paula G. Thornhill

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Managing Catastrophic North Korea Risks

In recent years, U.S. commanders of the ROK/U.S. Combined Forces Command have been unanimous in stating that CFC could defeat a North Korean invasion. Nevertheless, they have also expressed concern about the catastrophic damage that North Korea could do to the ROK before losing, writes Bruce Bennett.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett