Missile Defense

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Japan's Potential Acquisition of Ground-Launched Land-Attack Missiles: Implications for the U.S.-Japanese Alliance

If Japan acquired ground-based strike capabilities, it would have significant consequences for the U.S.-Japanese alliance. American and Japanese policymakers may need to have a new and expanded set of conversations about how such capabilities would be used and how the alliance could adjust to incorporate them.

Jeffrey W. Hornung, Scott W. Harold

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The Real Tragedy of Israel's Wars in Gaza

Israel's strategy in Gaza of repeatedly cutting back Hamas's military capabilities before it gets strong enough to do Israel any serious harm is known as “mowing the grass.” Unfortunately this approach offers no alternative to continued bloodshed.

Raphael S. Cohen

commentary

Missing in Japan's Deterrence Debate

Following its decision to cancel the Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defense system, Japan is currently debating future deterrence capabilities. The debate over how Japan can defend itself is an important one, offering a major opportunity to shape the country's future defense posture.

Jeffrey W. Hornung

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Is Japan's Interest in Enemy Base Attack Capabilities a Good Idea?

In the span of a month, Tokyo has rapidly gone from canceling a ballistic missile defense system to considering strike capabilities against foreign adversaries. Is Japan on the precipice of dramatically changing the way it uses its military?

Jeffrey W. Hornung

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Japan Is Canceling a U.S. Missile Defense System

In June, Japan canceled its planned deployment of two Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defense systems. This decision is understandable, but that doesn't negate the problems it could pose for Japanese security and Japan's relationship with the United States.

Jeffrey W. Hornung

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Russian S-400 Surface-to-Air Missile System: Is It Worth the Sticker Price?

Many countries do not fully appreciate that effective air defense requires a networked system and not just one missile system component. Getting the true defensive value out of the S-400 surface-to-air system requires additional components that add costs and complexities.

Peter A. Wilson, John V. Parachini @JohnParachini

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Trump-Kim Summit, Climate Change, Zarif: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the Trump-Kim summit, how cities can prepare for climate change, Mohammad Javad Zarif's resignation, and more.

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Most Popular RAND Blog Commentary of 2018

RAND experts publish hundreds of pieces of RAND Blog commentary every year, weighing in on pressing policy questions, breaking down current events, and untangling complex trends. To look back on some of the policy stories that defined the year, we've rounded up the RAND Blog pieces that resonated most with rand.org visitors.

commentary

Japan's Aegis Ashore Defense System

For nearly 20 years, Japan has used the North Korea threat as a legitimate rationale to build its missile defense system and cooperate closely with the U.S. in its development. This argument remains as true today as it was before the flurry of regional diplomacy began earlier this year.

Jeffrey W. Hornung

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Success with North Korea Still Needs Japan

Japan has stakes in the outcome of regional diplomacy involving North Korea. It could play a role far beyond simply writing checks for an agreement, but has not held any bilateral meetings with the other actors. Diplomats hoping to fit their approach to the realities of the geopolitical situation could benefit from Japan's active involvement.

Jeffrey W. Hornung

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Hypersonic Missiles: A New Proliferation Challenge

Within 10 years, hypersonic missiles are likely to be deployed and offered on the international market. But there is time for action by states that do not want hypersonic missiles to flourish in their neighborhoods. It is time to move toward heading off this threat while it is still possible to do so.

Richard H. Speier

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Is Iron Dome a Poisoned Chalice? Strategic Risks from Tactical Success

While Iron Dome's past success in defending Israel makes it a tempting solution to future challenges, it does have shortcomings. This becomes even more serious when considering using the system in Korea, where the threat posed is substantially greater, and the targeted terrain substantially harder to defend.

Elizabeth M. Bartels @elliebartels

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Why Japan Needs Long-Range Strike Capabilities

Japan's pacifist constitution allows it to exercise force only when its survival is threatened and there are no other means to repel the attack. But North Korea's advancing military capabilities have drastically changed the threat environment. Japan no longer has the luxury to be complacent about its security threats.

Jeffrey W. Hornung

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Lowdown on Pyeongtaek Garrison

Camp Humphreys will become the major U.S. base in Korea. In terms of North Korean threats, the camp is roughly 100 kilometers from the Demilitarized Zone. Some North Korean ballistic missiles could cause damage at Camp Humphreys if it's targeted.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

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Why THAAD Is Needed in Korea

As the threat from North Korea has been developing over the last 30 years, the U.S. has responsibly deployed missile defenses in Korea to protect its forces and South Koreans. Today, North Korea's medium- and intermediate-range missiles require a defense able to handle higher missile re-entry speeds like the THAAD system.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

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Five Lessons from Israel's Wars in Gaza

After a decade of operating against Hamas in Gaza, the Israel Defense Force has learned many lessons about urban warfare against hybrid adversaries. The last confrontation teaches five basic lessons that apply well beyond Gaza.

Raphael S. Cohen

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The Future of Hypersonic Weapons

Russia and China appear to be developing hypersonic weapons. But the United States should make decisions about whether to develop its own hypersonic weapons in a vacuum.

Daniel M. Norton

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On Northeast Asia

China has been a major proponent of regional security for Northeast Asia but appears disinterested in Republic of Korea (ROK) security against North Korean missile and nuclear weapon threats.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

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THAAD's Effect on South Korea's Neighbors

It is hard to determine how China or Russia will respond to THAAD deployment in South Korea. THAAD deployment could change the dynamic and terms of the debate, leading to greater Chinese pressure on North Korea to curb its nuclear and missile threats.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

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How China's New Russian Air Defense System Could Change Asia

The Russian S-400 TRIUMF surface to air missile entered the media spotlight when Moscow deployed the system after Turkey's shoot-down of a Russian plane near the Syria border on Thanksgiving Day. This episode demonstrated the S-400's potential as a weapon with strategic effects, a role that China may seek to exploit in future crises.

Timothy R. Heath

q&a

South Korea's Missile-Defense System Decision: Q&A with Bruce Bennett

What might it mean if the U.S. deploys the terminal high-altitude air defense missile system known as THAAD in South Korea? Chinese pressure on South Korea to not allow THAAD deployment has become a major regional security issue.

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The Grim Lessons of 'Protective Edge'

For all the attempts to find technological quick fixes or enforce a permanent settlement, Operation Protective Edge has highlighted that a war of attrition, known as a 'long war,' remains the only viable strategy in the current environment.

Raphael S. Cohen, Gabriel Scheinmann

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America's New Missile Gap

With the end of the Cold War, the U.S. military refocused on the non-nuclear realm. In most cases, military professionals moved seamlessly into this realm, but the land-based missileers lacked the option to shift their focus.

Paula G. Thornhill

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Turkey Edges Toward Seeking NATO Support in Syria Crisis

As the crisis along the border between Syria and Turkey intensifies, Turkey appears on the brink of a formal request to the North Atlantic Council that NATO deploy Patriot missiles to help defend the border, writes Christopher Chivvis.

Christopher S. Chivvis

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NATO's Shrinking Resources

At a time when the European Union faces mounting economic and political challenges, maintaining a strong, vibrant Atlantic alliance is more important than ever, write F. Stephen Larrabee and Peter A. Wilson.

F. Stephen Larrabee, Peter A. Wilson

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The Kremlin's Bold Missile Defense Gambit

Russia's proposal for joint missile defense represents a potential game-changer for the Kremlin's relations with the West, writes Andrew Weiss.

Andrew S. Weiss

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Biden's Task in Eastern Europe: Reassurance

After the decision to cancel missile defense plans in Poland and the Czech Republic, the US needs to do more than damage control to soothe ties there, write F. Stephen Larrabee and Christopher Chivvis.

F. Stephen Larrabee, Christopher S. Chivvis

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The Right Move in Europe: Improved Opportunities with NATO, Russia

The Obama administration's decision to alter course on missile defense was the right choice. Those who claim it is a capitulation to Russia are wrong, writes Christopher S. Chivvis.

Christopher S. Chivvis

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Real Threats, Real Fears, Real Defenses

Critics of the Bush administration missile defense plans for Central Europe have charged that the United States would be deploying defenses that did not work against a threat that did not exist, writes James Dobbins.

James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins

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No Surprise in Failure to Deter N. Korea

North Korea's latest misbehavior highlights an uncomfortable truth: the failure of the United States and the international community to deter North Korean actions. In this case, it is pretty easy to see why North Korea has not been deterred, writes Bruce Bennett.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

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How Not to Promote American Missile Defense in Europe

Published commentary by RAND staff: How Not to Promote American Missile Defense in Europe, in Project Syndicate--an association that distributes commentaries to 291 newspapers in 115 countries.

F. Stephen Larrabee, Andrzej Karkoszka

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Missile Defense: Avoiding a Crisis in Europe

Published commentary by RAND staff: Missile Defense: Avoiding a Crisis in Europe, in International Herald Tribune.

F. Stephen Larrabee, David E. Mosher

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The Challenge for NATO's Chairman

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Robert E. Hunter

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Nothing's Free in Dealing with Putin

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Robert E. Hunter

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A Burst of Agenda-Setting Will Disarm Europeans for Bush

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Robert E. Hunter

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There's a Better Way to Missile Defense

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Jeffrey A. Isaacson

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The China and Nuclear Reunion Is Only a Motive Away

Published commentary by RAND staff

David E. Mosher, Lowell H. Schwartz

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Tiptoeing Into Europe's Briar Patch

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Robert E. Hunter

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Foreign Policy Minefield Dictates Starting Slowly

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Robert E. Hunter